The year 2011 saw a multitude of changes, some of the larger being the Arab Revolution which toppled dictators that had been entrenched in power for decades; the death of Steve Jobs, one of the revolutionary technology leaders – as the creator of the Apple ‘clan’, and whose technology is still rippling changes through society; and the push back of autocratic societies that are feeling the air of revolution blowing around the globe. With the theme of ‘Revolution’firmly imprinted upon this year, and as it draws to a close, we had a changeover of the guardians this past weekend, with the death of Vaclav Havel and Kim Jung II. It seems almost preposterous to consider them both with the term revolutionary, but they represent the alpha and the omega of many a revolution.
Vaclav Havel, the leader of the velvet revolution in his native Czechoslovakia, fought for his society to be free. From the day his communist government forbade him the opportunity to pursue a university degree in the Humanities, he set a course for his life into the human experience. Through his plays, his books, and his political leadership, he championed the cause of liberation. From speaking out in 1968 with the Prague Spring and spending much of his life in jail, under surveillance, under censorship, and under repression of his own humanity, to the President of an independent Czech Republic. Vaclav Havel lived his humanity to its fullest. A revolutionary success story, as it were.
‘Inhumane contrast’, was the theme of the son of a revolutionary – Kim II Sung. His son – Kim Jong iI enjoyed the life of privilege he was given. He may have been born in Siberia, not far from the gulags, where he sent the political dissidents who challenged him, and his father may have been a Red Army member and friendly towards ‘Stalinism’ and all it represented, but Kim Jong-il did not suffer from hunger, fight any great wars, or hold power through any accomplishment other than a developed cult of personality. Kim Jung II was at the helm at one of the most brutal times in North Korean history, with hundreds of thousands dying of starvation in the 1990’s. Now that he too has died, his son, Kim Jong-un, is the third generation leadership of the revolution. The succession of power being started in 2011, with the purging of any possible challengers, and succession was planned for 2012. This revolution had left repression, death and extreme poverty in its wake, as its leaders enjoyed its wealth. North Korea is not just a failed state, but a failed revolution.
If 2010 was on the ‘edge of evolution’, 2011 was the ‘year of the revolution’. In America the books bought reflected an interest in past ‘revolutionary’ heroes. Americans read about George Washington (The American Revolution), Jack Kennedy ( The 60’s revolution), Lincoln (The American Civil War), and of course Steve Jobs (The Apple Revolution), and yearned for knowing about the unusual, whether it was about life after death through the eyes of a boy, cells of immortality from a dead woman, or a friendship or encounter beyond the usual. From 2011 we can project into 2012 the trend of change, tumultuous change, that generally follows a period of revolutionary zeal. We can also predict the push back of rigid societies that have not tolerated change and are seeking to hold to a past which is quickly slipping through their fingers. The year will be chaotic and and heavily conflicted, as change pushes its way through, in various shapes and forms, perhaps some that were not intended, or ever expected. Please note that this and the following statements, are opinions.
The middle east will be a hot bed of conflict like never seen before, as the forces of change, a youthful generation longing for change runs headstrong into the wall of an aged powerful elite, as secular social forces push into the bastions of religious control, and as the powerful pull out their big guns to try to stem the tide. Another major trend still running is the financial crisis and trade imbalances. The west will continue to rebalance the past and future amidst political stress, as Europe fractures in and out of the E.U., and America faces an election year. Watch for assassination attempts as power struggles emerge on the edges of fighting in heavily conflicted areas, and in power vacuums.
Perhaps one of the bigger, but not as headlined stories will be the emergence of climate change being understood by the general public. We are closing in on the ‘one hundred monkeys’, a theoretical concept where the moment arrives when enough of the population knows and understand an idea, that it becomes powerfully communicated and understood, within the group. As we begin to experience more climate change, more of us will tune into the concept and its implications. The transmission of this effect will be enhanced by social media.
Technology will continue to have massive transformative effects upon our societies, but will be slowed by our lack of infrastructure to handle this as yet. Industries will continue to change and reinvent themselves. Adaption and prediction will become more of a critical business focus. As the rate and spread of change increase, our comfort in living within the process, and ability to do so, will improve. These trends will emerge out of a 2012 change process, and continue well past the decade. The rate of which we can adapt, will distinguish those societies that will survive this period of transition, and those that will not.
The theme of change in 2012 is hardly a new one. It has been long discussed as a transitional point. From http://www.adishakti.org
“Both the Hopis and Mayans recognize that we are approaching the end of a World Age… In both cases, however, the Hopi and Mayan elders do not prophesy that everything will come to an end. Rather, this is a time of transition from one World Age into another. The message they give concerns our making a choice of how we enter the future ahead. Our moving through with either resistance or acceptance will determine whether the transition will happen with cataclysmic changes or gradual peace and tranquility. The same theme can be found reflected in the prophecies of many other Native American visionaries from Black Elk to Sun Bear.”
— Joseph Robert Jochmans
Happy holidays and the best of luck to all in 2012,the year of change.
We have seen signs of social unrest lately in a variety of locations we might normally expect such as the Middle East, Iran, and China. What we might not have expected is for social unrest to start spreading across Europe into the America’s, as changes related to the financial collapse continue to unfold. Triggers may include minor extraneous stressors such as the colder weather, increasing levels of fear, and open confrontation from both sides, impacting major issues such as continued unemployment, homelessness, and rising austerity. A grassroots movement is starting to galvanize in the United States in response to the prolonged changes in the economy. In the depression of the dirty thirties, there was an occupation of the areas surrounding the White House by unpaid ex-military who felt unjustly treated, which was eventually forcefully and brutally suppressed by the actual military ordered by Hoover, who paid dearly for this politically. In this instance the occupation is galvanizing around the symbol of the cause of the financial collapse – Wall Street, with a group called ‘occupywallstreet.org’ with some minor skirmishes having already happened between the police and the protesters.
The group is beginning to organize via social media, and this is picking interest and connection in Europe as well. A live streaming internet TV station has been created and is calling itself ‘global revolution’. While the organization of this group is primarily being driven by youth elements, this movement is picking up steam with other social protest groups such as Wikileaks, and Anonymous, and celebrities such as Micheal Moore and Susan Sarandon. New York City Transit workers are planning to join the protest on next Friday October 5th. If organized labor joins the movement formally, we may have reached a critical mass for social change being engaged, and this will become a force to be reckoned with by various levels of government. Early attempts at Social media censorship are being reported in media such as Al Jazeera with the following report being posted on their internet site:
“On at least two occasions, Saturday September 17 and again on Thursday night, Twitter blocked #OccupyWallStreet from being featured as a top trending topic on their homepage. On both occasions,#OccupyWallStreet tweets were coming in more frequently than other top trending topics that they were featuring on their homepage. This is blatant political censorship on the part of a company that has recently received a $400 million investment from JP Morgan Chase.”
From the wikileaks central site, the following excerpt outlines the spread of similar organizations starting to rally across the country that are beginning to take hold.
‘The volunteer based website Occupy Together, whose aim is to create a site that would help spread the word as more protests organize across the country, counts over 70 registered protests in U.S. cities. Apart from the main occupations, currently on-going in New York, Chicago and Denver, many will start in the following weeks to coincide with the global protest day of October 15th. In the following days, parks and squares in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Kansas City, Houston, among others, will be occupied.’
OWS New York City: October 2011
A ‘global day of protest’ is planned for Oct 15th, and while this movement is in the initial stages of formation, it will prove interesting to see how much support this larger protest is able to garnish in the next few days. There are three phases to the protest in New York from a march on the banks in the A.M., to a student get together after lunch, and finally a demonstration at Times Square in the evening. On Friday the gathering of protesters by Wall Street is a collection of a variety of characters from youthful rebels, hard core anarchists, elderly activists, and a women who brought her 3 young daughters to the protest. All of whom were easily out numbered by the media that were present.
Dave Silver, an elderly New Yorker with a walker, was one of those protesters. He was quick to point out that he had been there for the sixties social unrest, and he understood that this was another of those times where as he felt you had to ‘stand up to be counted.’ Dave was a decorated WWII vet with a bronze star, jail time from the sixties protests, and a friend of the Black Panthers. ‘I came from a progressive Jewish family’, he explained. He recalled the sixties marches as heated, where ‘heads were bashed on both sides’ and admired the protesters of today for sticking it out day after day. ‘In the sixties we protested fiercely and then went home after it was done.’ He encouraged the group to become more organized with deciding what they wanted, ‘they need to know what they want’, as he had done on the sign he wore on his chest. ‘The list is the way we can save trillions of dollars’ he stated.
Eric, was a forty something man dressed impeccably in a pin stripe suit, and was in sharp contrast to the rather tired looking crew of younger protesters. With a purple sash about his arm, wilted flower in the lapel, and the requisite mask now symbolic of the online group known as ‘Anonymous’, he stood prominently on a corner waving his sign to the crowd. A sign carried the message that… ‘If a corporation was a person, it would be a sociopath.’ When asked about his stance. Eric spoke of a study where the behaviours of a corporation were analyzed through a MMPI, a psychological test that is used to measure personality features, amongst other things, and that corporate behaviours scored as a sociopath. As an entity, ‘that it cared nothing than about itself’. Eric also spoke of corporations using the 14th amendment to protect their rights as equal to that of a person, ‘although we know that it is not a person’. He continued his argument that ‘the 14th amendment was designed to keep men equal under the eyes of the law,… it helped to end slavery. It was never meant for a corporation.’ Eric had tried to make his past grievances about the Bush Administration known to his Congressman, only to be ignored. He had ran for Congress as a Green party member just to get the opportunity to debate his Congressman, but no debate was ever held. He tried to ask questions at Town Hall meetings that were essential vetted phone call questions, of which his were never allowed. So, he came today to the protest in his finest, knowing how he looked in the mask and what the sign said, was ‘a bit of theater…and theater has been used for centuries to get a message across’. The questions that Eric asks ‘Are corporations more important than citizens’, and ‘has government become.. by the corporation for the corporation.’
‘Mike’ was a young beaded musician who was just passing through town and decided to join the protest. He said he could understand how ‘both side of the fence’ think, as he worked in business, and yet understood it was time for a change.
The Press Representative for the protest stated they had gathered about $130,000 in donations so far, mainly from people who had come by in person. This figure quickly escalated to over $300,000. They were still organizing a structure and groups were working on various issues. They had not thought so far ahead as to think whether they thought they could be an influence in the 2012 elections.
The Protests
The protest march that was held the next day was loud, peaceful, and well attended by various factions of society. They enjoyed the full assistance of the NYPD who worked hard at clearing the sidewalks in advance of the chanting crowd approaching, and managing the difficult job of coordinating the traffic intersections affected. The crowds gathered again in various locales across the city as the day progressed, but were generally peaceful. This day of protest was enacted across the world in the major areas most affected by the financial crisis and collapse. There were some minor arrests, but New York was for the most part a peaceful event, in comparison to places such as Rome. From these events we can start to examine the underlying cognitions and facilitating factors with these trends, as well as examine where these trends can take us further.
The Thinking
An excerpt from the Website Zero Hedge had a comment about the some of the underlying changes in thinking in society that have preceded collapse.
‘Interestingly, there are some forms of theoretical mathematics which allow false conclusions to be presented as fact, and this same methodology of fuzzy logic is consistently used by moral relativist to achieve the appearance of reason. At bottom, intellectual prowess accomplishes little without the disciplines of experience, emotion, and insight. Cultures which widely abandon the guidelines of conscience always find themselves subject to collapse, whether economic or political. Without the ability to feel empathy for the victims of one’s actions, any disaster becomes possible.’
Perhaps in a time of burgeoning technology we should examine the social risk that computers, algorithms, and forms of inanimate collectivity ultimately create. Does a society or segment of society ultimately become self-limiting by the virtue that part of its critical decision making processes have no emotional component, and no context for which to make critical judgments. Are computers psychopathic in nature?
In the economic collapse that this social unrest follows, a lack of regulatory oversight has been the focused upon causative factor, but it is not the only issue, and in fact, the role that technology had in the development of this disaster, is often minimized. Our technological society was endless with electronic media advertisements of the ‘good life’, and how to achieve it, even though most could not afford it. From the online mortgage application, to the ‘robo-signing’ of documents, money was borrowed, re-leveraged, and repackaged endlessly down the chain, from basic consumer credit to the re-supply of money to troubled banks that made money lending out money, they never had. This technological orgy had been what kept society from realizing the full impact of globalization, and noticing the concentration of wealth in the hands of fewer and fewer. Now that the facade has also been revealed, and our current plight emphasized by technology as well, we have the ‘multiplier effect’ on social unrest, and global social unrest.
There is with some, a simplistic political wish for some nostalgic return to past economic eras, such as Reagon’s ‘Trickle Down’ economic theory which unfortunately has benefited the wealthy more, with the net trickle up of wealth. Returning to these policies would only continue the present trajectory, and without the facade of the unregulated, technological enhancement of money, unemployment will linger. It remains to be seen whether the awakening social unrest will jar governments into a new style of functioning, or whether reactionary forces will create a further response, such the emergence of new domestic or regional political parties, or the strengthening of ‘global political parties’ such as the green movement.
From the following quote from the Washington Post illustrates that we recognize that this is a global issue that we lack the institutions and structure to effectively deal with, as problems are developing across various countries and regions. We have to look at developing new democratic structures at a larger global scale, or we are at the mercy of other global organizations, such as multinational corporations, who can exert influence at a global level.
‘The emergence of an international protest movement without a coherent program is therefore not an accident: It reflects a deeper crisis, one without an obvious solution. Democracy is based on the rule of law. Democracy works only within distinct borders and among people who feel themselves to be part of the same nation. A global community cannot be a national democracy. And a national democracy cannot command the allegiance of a billion-dollar global hedge fund, with its headquarters in a tax haven and its employees scattered around the world… we have democratic institutions in the Western world. They are designed to reflect, at least crudely, the desire for political change within a given nation. But they cannot cope with the desire for global political change, nor can they control things that happen outside their borders. Although I still believe in globalization economic and spiritual benefits along with open borders, freedom of movement and free trade globalization has clearly begun to undermine the legitimacy of Western democracies.’
2012 Waves Expand and Deepen
While the Occupy movement symbolizes unrest in democracies, other larger countries such as Russia and China are experiencing their own rebellious subterfuge. These ‘post CCP’ revolutions may emerge upon larger impacts felt economically, such as the Euro zone crisis worsening in the spring and causing economic chaos in China, and for Russia the next national election also comes in spring of 2012. It is not surprising that their UN vetoes took place in the context of fear, a fear of change in authoritarian regions that may have contagion for them. Hong Kong is now feeling increased pressure from mainland China as its previous greater economic power is being usurped by those in power in the mainland, to develop additional resources as the mainland starts to hurt economically. The Chinese population and independent media is beginning to openly criticize the government, and further economic stress could worsen this into a more significant social reaction. In Russia, what is being mislabeled as the ‘White Revolution’ by those who do not remember that traditionally ‘White Russians’ were the Czar’s army, and not a democratic movement, is perhaps more accurate in its historical sense. Russian government is being re-created in the authoritative structure of a Czar -Czar Putin. The Russian people have had a limited history with democratic forms of government, and have a greater likelihood of seeking a strong authoritarian figure unless the geography of Russia changes significantly. Russia’s ‘White Revolution’ may signal a return more to the past than the future. Mortality rates are still high and the average lifespan between male and female exceeds ten years. The bulk of the population is middle-aged or younger, with the average age around the late thirties. Czar Putin can expect some younger bucks to try him as an opponent, but he is unlikely to be toppled as yet at the age of 59.
Middle Eastern regions already in the stages of revolution, are escalating into a major push back by those feeling the pressure of change. Egypt’s current government is battling the expectations of democratic change, while setting course on maintaining their power base. A free Libya is struggling to settle old scores and create a just society where there has been none for almost half a century. Syria and Iran are gunning their own people down to stop revolutionary fervour. Syria is most likely of the two to fall in the near future. Iran, while showing signs of economic stress, is still able to lash out and ignite sectarian violence in strategic regions, and as such maintains a position of strength and influence. Israel remains in a defensively aggressive posture after the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, coupled with previous misadventure with Turkey and the Gaza Flotilla, and a Muslim Brotherhood who wants their cake and to eat it too, threatening to nullify the peace treaty with Israel if the Americans cut off any funding, after Egypt authorities arrested American NGO personnel. The middle east remains a critical tinderbox of escalating conflict that has gone beyond the initial democratic call of its people.
June 2012
Youth protests worldwide are continuing to interconnect. Current protests in Montreal over tuition increases and government restrictions on protests which have unleashed an even larger turnout of Quebecer’s protesting the restrictions and attitude of the government, which has now been called ‘the awakening’. These protests have been connected to the OWS movement in the USA with solidarity protests, and other protests such as the Ontario students planned protest, also done in solidarity and to raise similar issues about tuition costs.
Chris Hedges spoke about social activism and the recent OWS and Montreal protests, in the context of past revolutions and periods of social change that he has witnessed.
Egypt has begun the countdown to a new president that they are to elect. The process has heated up students protests against the military led government and judiciary, which has since acquitted everyone except Mubarak, who was sentenced to life in prison. The election has been filled with acrimony and scurrilous activities, with everything from candidates being disqualified after acceptance, the arson of party headquarters, the armed attacks of thugs on student protesters in the night, to the nonpayment of civil servants before the election. The final vote for president whatever the outcome, should bring to the head the battle for power between the old guard and the revolution.
October 2012
The Occupy movement has officially began to morph as an official form of protest into categories outside of the discontent with the financial collapse and the economic difficulties felt globally. Occupy Monsanto has enveloped the category of food, and food sustainability. The issue of terminator seeds, corporate control of food and farmer dependency, has led to the development of an ‘organic’ alternative-a farmer run seed supply chain, and a social backlash to the unsustainable policies of agricultural conglomerates and their GMO products. A pivotal vote to take place in the usual breakwater state of California, to mandate the identification of foods as GMO, or not, in a Right to Know campaign.
‘When the USSR dissolved from history, many of us simply felt that this was the West in triumph. However, now that the west has begun to hit the cusp of a radical transformation of our own, we may begin to ask – ‘what is really going on here?’ There are a few conceptual frameworks to see these changes, perhaps best described by one of the original futurologist Alvin Toffler, in his trilogy of books ‘Future Shock‘,(1970) ‘Third Wave‘,(1980) and ‘Powershift‘(1990). One conceptual theory called Panarchy would call this the Omega or release phase going towards the Alpha or re-organization / renewal phase, where we have shifted towards another level or regime, in an evolutionary viewpoint. An article by Thomas Homer-Dixon (photo left) reviews panarchy theory and what it tells us, in Our ‘Panarchic Future‘
In societies that once were heavily industrialized, unions lament the loss of their industry to China or other newly industrialized countries, and economists lament the damage we have done to the value of our currency and economy. If this global financial collapse is simply a developmental change process to a new information age and a restructuring of our global currency and the meaning of money, are we really dealing with the issues in a forward looking manner? Interestingly enough, the man who coined the term ‘perestroika’ and ‘glasnost’ and who unleashed the change forces pent up in his own country and allowed it’s transformation to occur Mikhail Gorbachev, was well acquainted with the Toffler’s. Whether we are speaking of ‘ecological phases’, or ‘waves’, we are speaking of transformative change.
We are facing the emergence of two major macro collapses. First, and already in process-the global financial collapse and eventual re-organization, and secondly, the recent emergence of what will be large scale changes in the global climate. We have been delaying real transformation for a long time. As Toffler put it, many in the ‘second wave’ even long to go back to the ‘first wave’. The ‘third wave’ is upon us and many institutions are still trying to stop real transformation, as once the ‘first wave’ tried to stop the changes representative of our ‘second wave’. Humans unfortunately, are often loath to change. We are at a point where if we do not chose change fast enough, a monstrous change will chose us, but perhaps not in the way we envisioned. We will be driven to change but will it be the ‘Golden Age’ or will it be the ‘Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse’, or somewhere in-between. Our problems are quite large and require more than just our grid locked governments and agencies to act on our behalf. We must begin to act for ourselves and our children as a collective group in a positive manner, with focus, persistence, and calmness. Eminent scientists such as James Lovelock speak of utter devastation, the loss of billions of lives, and there are many books naming various end of the roads we face whether it be the end of cheap energy, ecological collapse, or other calamity. The ‘third wave’ is upon us, but must be engaged fully and utilized in a manner that allows us to optimize a bad situation.’
The world has seen several major events that have impacted on how it functions as a whole. In many ways change has been coming for some time, but has been held back by the usual dynamics that stabilize ongoing patterns. Dynamic ending drivers include increasing debt management and political issues in Europe, debt ceilings and stimulus limits in the USA, trending inflation in China, currency imbalances, and mounting social unrest in high risk areas such as the Middle East, Pakistan & Afghanistan, North Korea and China, along with increased weather instability impacting food supplies. The world is reaching a tipping point of change in fundamental dynamics, just as new conceptualizations emerge with our new world.
One of the leading drivers of change include the internet increasing the connectivity and organization of our world, which in turn is changing the geographical topology of our world. The debate of whether China or the U.S. will be the dominant player in the next century, is a discussion extrapolating from our history, and not applicable to our future. We will go much further beyond being a unipolar, or bipolar world, to a multipolar, multilinked global world, connected by technology. Other leading drivers include the increasing rate of technological change, globalization, and the switch in generational maturation away from the Baby Boomer to Gen X and Gen Y. We can examine our new world with network theory, hair balls and hive plots.
There is both an increase in convergence, and of radical transformational adaption in a very complex, rapidly changing world. As Toffler (The Third Wave) points out, the rapid change in technology cannot help but change our social structures and the very essence of how we traditionally see ourselves. The potential for social unrest is great at this time, although as our understanding increases, we may be able to mediate the transition from the collapse of our old world into the new forms that are beginning to emerge. We will need to build upon further, and develop applications of these new theories to allow us to prevent catastrophic collapse of multiple sectors, envision our global economy, and organize ourselves to face new technological challenges such as geo-engineering, DNA manipulation, and ecosystem regrowth.The importance of developing technologies we will require in the near future, is paramount, or as a species we will be left to scramble to survive. We need technologies that can model and predict with much more accuracy, that are conceptually different from what we have now. Globally strategic issues such as critical trends need more monitoring and input, from cross-discipline viewpoints. Critical issues such as climate change and global warming can be broken down into simplified overviews, to transmit ideas and urgency. Very simplified the sun, and our world’s ability to self-regulate or the ‘Gaia’ principle, can be 2 key forces that shift the earth from our current stable state, to a hotter stable state, that the earth has been in the past. As we destroy our environment,we destroy the earth’s ability to regulate our internal atmosphere, and as we add gases that intensify the effect of the sun such as CO2 and methane and others, we create a situation that that introduces more energy into a system that has less and less ability to regulate the effects. The change will not be linear, but trending up and chaotic. We are lighting a fuse, in effect.
Some feel it is too late already, while others feel we have forever, and similarly with geo-engineering some feel this is possible salvation while other’s view it as Pandora’s box to open. Technologies such as putting solar panels in space that are dual purpose-that can stop solar energy from reaching our earth, and harvest some of the energy for our use, to replace environmental destruction and degradation, could be mankind’s redemption. We would also have to try and regrow our environment, and change a huge part of our lifestyle. Could we do it, would we do it? We are only at the beginning.
2012 Arrives
Much has been written about 2012 in the media. Perhaps at some fundamental level we could sense that a large change was to start somewhere near this window of time. We can see the Middle East transform in various degrees, and watch the economic fallout from a collapsing Eurozone, if only on the periphery for now. Russia senses danger and decides to rearm more intensely, as if its leaders realize turbulence is on its way. China, a current stabilizer on the worlds economy, is having difficulties of its own. In Panarchy the transition from various states are described as a series of stages that are proceeded through, as if physics and ecology had melded, and where energy, growth, peak growth, collapse, and restructure occur in a cyclical fashion.
“Panarchy, and by extension this website, is not a normative model; it is a descriptive one. Panarchy is not a utopian vision, or an attempt to describe a rational or just world order. Panarchy may not be good or bad, but it is coherent and consistent. Like the Industrial Era, Panarchy demonstrates certain ways of perceiving and interacting with the world throughout its breadth and depth. Panarchy emerges from the analysis of broad patterns of change in the world, which leads to an understanding the dynamics of systems and holarchies. By applying those understandings across all strata of society, we arrive at a description of where civilization is heading,…”
Panarchy theory also describes “… in K, resilience decreases while the other values increase. Eventually, some internal or external event triggers the W phase, in which potential crashes; finally, in a, resilience and potential grow, connectedness falls, unpredictability peaks, and new system entrants can establish themselves. Holling and Gunderson (2002) stress that the adaptive cycle is a metaphor that can be used to generate specific hypotheses; exact interpretations of resilience, potential, and connectedness are system dependent.”
“Holling (2004) assesses the possibility of using the ideas that are central to panarchy, developed on a regional scale, to help explain the changes that are being brought about on a global scale by the Internet and by climate, economic, and geopolitical changes. He suggests that the “international world of nations” entered the backloop Ω and α phases of an adaptive cycle with the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall. However, the subsequent years have seen continued economic growth, technical intensification, growth of transnational corporations, and primacy of the United States; all these date at latest from 1945 and appeared most threatened during the 1970s with the American defeat in Indo-China, the oil shocks, and “stagflation.” Holling identifies the Internet as a backloop phenomenon and regards the “global interconnected communications-driven revolution” as a third major transformation after the agricultural and industrial revolutions. However, this has been a very long revolution, under way, in successive waves, for more than two centuries when we consider the telegraph (first visual, then electric), telephone, radio, and television.
It seems impossible to assign the planetary social-ecological system convincingly to any phase of the adaptive cycle. Connectedness and certain kinds of potential are rising, and resilience is probably falling, suggesting that we are in a K phase. At the same time, continuing rapid innovation suggests an r phase, whereas the growing release of stored energy from fossil fuels, plus soil erosion, extinctions, and deforestation would seem to indicate Ω. In contrast, although they disagree on much else, Berry (2000), Devezas et al. (2005), and the world-systems analyst Goldstein (2006) agree that the Kondratieff cycle should produce rising growth and inflation, and technological diffusion rather than radical innovation, over the next decade or more.
Whether through war, full-scale ecological collapse, or a technological and/or socio-political revolution, it seems certain, as Holling (2004) notes, that radical global change is coming in this century, but this is evident even without the panarchical perspective. We urgently need the scientific tools to understand the range of possibilities open to us. Combining the panarchical perspective’s strengths at the regional scale and its key concept of resilience with the insights of world-systems theory could yield an understanding neither can provide alone.”
June 2012
In examining how current megatrends are unfolding, we can examine the interplay of the financial collapse particularly in Europe and its ripple effects both socially and economically, the increasingly interconnected youth protests across the globe, the increasing recognition of climate change, and the direct effects of same on our global weather system and ecology. Some writers have felt that the destruction of forces that have held us together, is required, while others see us going forward into a period of relative anarchy. The purpose of analyzing megatrends is to give us the option to build a repertoire of responses from which can chose to effectively change the course of our future, but reality often prevents a successful implementation.
We are at a key turning point in our ability to change into a ‘state of organization’ that can help us survive the impending crisis that global climate change will bring in the very near future. We are shifting socially, but without enough awareness of what is required for our collective action. A common reaction in the face of a threat is to retreat to a place of perceived safety and familiarity, while what we may need is the expansion into the new. In some ways our global world is beginning to do both these divergent movements now. The concept of the Eurozone was born out of the not yet forgotten memories of WWII, of hundreds of thousands of French and German soldiers dying on the field of warring nations and of the millions that perished as ‘collateral damage’, that helped to create the idea of a unified Europe, never mind a unified Germany. It was an opportunity of political and economic cooperation and restructuring that was taken. The ‘Fantastic Object’ as George Soros has called it. But now when faced with severe austerity, member states are now looking at retreating into their individual countries, while a few are still standing pat and looking how to reform the current situation. There are no easy ways to understand and predict the dynamics, and we need to develop news ways to understand our global forces in play. Potential exists in new fields such as network theory and analytics applied to our ever growing collection of social data.
Thomas Homer-Dixon speaks about complexity, and the need to develop new ways of viewing and understanding our world.
August 2012 Update
The continuation of the Arab revolution has begun its second wave of influence, and the reassertion of power by previously powerless majorities such as the Sunni Muslim community, has expanded into the realignment of the Syrian-Iran axis, as well as changing geographical demarcations with further regional claims by various subgroups. This power shift is likely to have effects on other middle eastern countries such as Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and other African states such as the Sudan. The subtle and not so subtle involvement of major superpowers in this transition, is seen in the relevant politics of China, Russia, and the US, as well as a possible increase in antagonistic behaviours towards Israel in the context of this shift of axis. Implications of unrest in areas so closely tied to the production of oil energy, is likely to ripple into industrial and technical production, and economic patterns.
Sept 2012 Update:
As Syria continues to explode in conflict, and the wholesale slaughter of citizens unleashes a huge refugee wave, gas is thrown onto a volatile middle east situation by a US resident claiming to be Jewish (which is not the case) who distributes an anti-Muslim video, unleashing a fatal American embassy attack on Sept 11th in Libya, and a tirade of anti-Americanism across the Arab world. The Middle East seems poised for war, with tensions between Israel, Iran, Syria, and the West reaching a tipping point. Oil distribution patterns are likely to be greatly affected.The timing coincides with the US electoral cycle. The US economic response has been swift, and a held back QE3 is unleashed into a crisis situation.
Europe and the Eurozone teeters on the brink of financial and political realignment, as Greece struggles with its failure, and the ripples unleash the cascade of financial inter-dependence into the political arena.
In response to the social and real effects of political austerity measures, Europe has begun to swing to the left primarily in it’s political spectrum. With both France and the smaller but hard hit Greece, votes for leftist political parties were enough in France to overthrow President Sarkozy, while in Greece the coalition of the radical left, the ‘Syriza‘ party charged past the scandal tainted Socialist Pasok party, and refused to work with the New Democrats to form a government for Greece, leaving the leadership rudderless and rather precarious.
But the larger question and trend to watch is whether Germany turns left as well, changing its official stance on austerity. Also, if Eurozone Austerity policies are reversed and replaced with growth policies, across France and Germany, will this happen fast enough and be enough to prevent the disintegration of the Eurozone. Key to whether this destructive dynamic can be stabilized is whether countries such as Greece, and other candidate countries, and eastern periphery countries, can be accommodated within the current, or a restructured Eurozone.
There are also larger Eurozone social issues which have to be addressed within the context of improved economics. The high youth employment in various countries has to be targeted, along with coordinated immigration and integration programs to reduce social unrest, and promote social cohesion within the rich diversity of Europe. The extreme right wing parties have been rewarded by playing the nationalistic and xenophobic cards, and represent a clear and present danger to social stability and the Eurozone dream. More planning needs to be done to revive all options of restructuring the Eurozone terms to match the current economic reality, while planning for future growth and rebalancing.
In China a rising revolution re-emerges corresponding with a sputtering economy that has been fuelled by infighting amongst oligarchs and central committee members, a rising exodus of Chinese capital leaving the country, and increasing numbers of unsold production accumulating. The spark for revolution may have been sufficiently lit, with this polarization point, from earlier failures to ignite a larger scale protest. If this occurs, the ramifications of this instability will impact the global economic and political landscape in ways unexpected.
Oct 2012 Update:
The situation in Iran has become fluid, with the failure of their currency, the rial. The Iranian government has begun a campaign of scapegoating causes of these continued economic woes, and civilian protests have emerged despite the authoritarian presence. Beirut has now seen the violence which plagues its northern regions in the country’s capital, with the explosion of a car bomb in the heavily commercial and Christian area of town. The potential for a regional civil war encompassing Iran, Syria and Lebanon increases in risk.
The dynamic shift caused by this potentiality is not fully recognized by the Western world as yet. As discussed in another post about the Global Pension Crisis ( http://wp.me/p1zpYL-k ) a fundamental re-balancing of age demographics is happening now. With China and Iran, two major centrally run countries being hit by the large youth demographic coming of age, a major transition has begun. Meanwhile in the western world we have hit the retirement demographic and our economies have stalled. The world is changing in ways while perhaps not expected, certainly could be foreseen.
By now, the fall of 2008 seems a distant memory, or perhaps better thought of as a bad dream. The ‘world financial crisis’, ‘the great recession’, the ‘banking collapse of 2008′, ‘the stock market collapse’; there were many names for what is still happening today. The trend is large and global and still unfolding in all its unvarnished details. At certain places along the way, somewhat predictable transition points occur. This trend had been building up steam over the years, and was run full tilt after the events of 9/11 settled, under the Bush Administration. No one wants to lose the election because of a bad economy. The wealth it created from the dynamics, became an addiction for the players that were benefiting, who turned a blind eye. This included everyone from the subprime homeowners who must have had some idea that this was not something they really could sustain, to the CEO’s of major banks who could easily see the writing on the wall. When it became apparent to the major players involved that the bubble was about to burst, the focus shifted to managing this event for the best possible outcome. By 2007 the housing market had turned in the USA. M. Panzner releases his book ‘Financial Armageddon…’ in 2007. By the spring of 2008 Fannie May and Freddie Mac had been considered for nationalization, according to rumours online. There were signs of stress. Bear Stearns failed. By June of 2008 the‘Hindenburg Omen’ had happened. R.B.S. and others were telling their clients to get out of the stock market. The election was starting to loom large on the horizon. Everything triggered at an opportune moment, interestingly enough. Some media reported the line that ‘no one saw it coming’.
A stock market bubble nears the bursting point by an election, bursts, sending shock waves throughout the global banking system, much of it already in crisis mode. Everything is thrown into a panic mode. Shortly after companies living on extended leverage to maximize profit and compete globally, are out of easy access to cash and fail or have massive layoffs. Much later, the second wave in the monthly mortgage reset charts starts coinciding with the political footballing of debt ceilings and uncertainty, and a political union that never worked out the details of monetary union is unable to deal with a partially submersed balloon of debt. When you look back at it, one can see why things happened the way they did, at the time they did. Looking at the graphs below, one can see the second wave peak being pushed down the road.
Macro-trends are so large they awash all, in their wake. Often it is like trying to stop the tide from coming in, you know it is approaching, but what to do. Our analysis of them let us try to minimize the severity, and reshape their path somewhat as they unfold. Being aware of them helps us adjust to our future needs, and hopefully find the time to react accordingly. The further we can see in the future of macro-trends, especially the critical trends and transition points, the more time we will have to react. Hopefully if we know, we can act in the best interests of society as a whole. Unfortunately the bulk of trend watching, which is in itself a very trendy niche the past few years, is done for profit of some sort. Macro-trends are difficult to ‘feel’ in any detail, because of the complexity involved, and are difficult to read as much of the data tends to be inaccurate, incomplete, and overly extrapolated. Immediate economic or political reasons often drive the response agenda, which do not always focus on the larger issues in play. But do we really understand how to navigate, if we do not know what direction to take for the long term? If we are only driven by short term interests, who is managing our longer term interests?
Gold has shot up dramatically in this latest crisis point, with values testing the $2000/oz mark. Hugo Chavez has even caused a stir in the rocketing gold market by announcing his plans on repatriating his gold abroad and nationalizing gold production located in his country. Gold, the dollar, and stocks are playing musical chairs with investors, as money chases safety, and a chance of profits in the volatility. Higher levels of fear and frustration are being reflected in the general populace as discontent festers. There have been periodic outbursts of social unrest in Europe, but continued joblessness and the stress of volatility may exacerbate unrest in the US, with a triggering event.
‘History Made’
In the relative quiet of a hot summer weekend, news emerged of the historic downgrade on the American debt from triple AAA status. While the American dollar remains the world’s reserve currency, a psychological bridge has been crossed in the world, and it is really this that will have the larger impact on world economics. In the larger context, the huge imbalances that have held despite pressures to the contrary, will have been changed by a seemingly insignificant event to some. It was a shift in perception, articulated. It will be remembered as historic, more for this. The event would have come at some point or other, in some shape as this, but it has arrived now. The larger the economy, and America has a huge economy still, the larger the impact. The blame game has begun, but in all fairness this imbalance has been around for many years, as the ‘elephant in the room’ no one cared to speak about, or deal with. Increasing national debt covered the effects of increasing trade imbalances, and unfunded domestic obligations. This ‘elephant’ was not only an American issue, but existed in many a country’s closet. A ‘herd of elephants’ if you will. As ‘it’ stood quietly in the corner, we stopped seeing it and life seemed to continue along its way. The creature has been awoken with this transition point in the global financial crisis like some terra cotta figure come to life, and is in play now. It will be a natural reaction to try and make it go ‘back to sleep’, but the likelihood of this, is a function of political cohesiveness of actions done for the good of a country, in a climate of ‘what can you do for me’. In a pre-election year the turmoil is expected. The larger part of the problem unaddressed is not really how to put the elephant back to sleep, but how to regain its health. How to put it on a diet and give it the exercise it needs to be healthy again. The analogy is useful in that you cannot starve the beast to health by severe austerity, nor can you not do the required exercises to transition the economy to where it should be, and modernize it along the way to the new reality. True health cannot be achieved by dieting alone, cutbacks must allow a focused jobs plan that is future orientated and takes into consideration the evolving context of the situation.
What will be unexpected is the size of the social wave of discontent that will follow. This will prove problematic for governments, and for political parties as an unhappy population breaks its trust of traditional parties and institutions, and reaches out to express itself in new political movements, beyond the Tea party. Radicalization along the lines of the 60′s will re-emerge. Themes from revolutionary eras will be brought into current focus, as wealth disparities only increase in this time. We will see ‘waves of social unrest’ emerge from the wake of the Global Financial Crisis, as we fall into a direction change with this transition point.
2012
The Second Wave of the financial crisis continues particularly in Europe where the downgrading of EU countries, and political crisis it engendered threatens the Eurozone. The political restructuring of Europe is occurring in response to the crisis.The periphery of the EU is in shambles as regions and countries such as the Baltics and Poland struggle with collapsed economies and banking systems, a by-product of mortgages denominated in Euros but paid back in the currency of the land, now sharply depreciated. The population now resentful of their earlier goals of joining western Europe, look toward other alliances such as the Baltic region, and whose interests are now being curried by the hand of Russia. In America, the United States struggles with continued unemployment and regulatory challenges, as the 2012 election begins to heat up the national political scene. In Canada, the regulatory framework of the banking system has saved it from the devastation of other regions, but the struggles of its major trading partners and the debts various levels of Canadian governments have, and are deciding to address, will begin to have a major impact in 2012 along with the demographics of a later boomer generation. The first boomers, born in Canada in 1947, will not reach the traditional retirement age of 65 until 2012.
Europe has its moment of social fireworks heighten as the battle over the epicentre of European debt, in particular Greek debt, is being fought over both politically, financially, and socially, with demands of extreme austerity by rescue packages being rejected by a population that no longers cares. By April the Greeks should know the extent of the austerity demands and bailouts amounts that will or will not be coming to a more measured degree, that should light the fuse for the periphery of the EU to rethink their EU imperative. What ever the case, shock waves can be expected to impact the global markets to some extent. This along with rising oil prices may cause a demarcation, a critical transition point for the global economy.
