Commentary 2012

Dec 2012

Mary A Moore

If the year of 2012 was the year of change, then nothing much seemed to be visibly changing for much of the year. The US elections were a never ending source of headlines that saw at the end the incumbent re-elected, the middle east remained embroiled in ongoing turmoil, the Eurozone still went from each economic crisis to corresponding bailout, and the job market continued in it’s struggles to recover. Most of us did not see the real drastic changes that were actually happening until the end of the year.

Most notable for our planet, 2012 saw the largest ice melt of Arctic ice ever recorded. Some 11.83 million square kilometers of Arctic ice melted between March and September 2012 according to the World Meteorological Organization. Warm spells during March 2012 resulted in many record-breaking temperatures in Europe and nearly 15,000 new daily records across the USA. The weather became extreme with heat waves, tornadoes  droughts, floods and extreme cold. By the end of the year even the US election campaign had been significantly affected by weather. The Democratic convention moved to an indoor arena, the Republican convention in Tampa was affected, and even the actual elections were impacted by Hurricane Sandy on the east coast where it struck major urban areas in New Jersey and New York. ‘Climate change’ had not even been a major issue during the campaign which focused on economic issues. It is not what we like to think about, for better or worse.

We have always viewed iconic storms like Katrina or Andrew, as random events. Sandy was the first storm that was ‘climate change’ for our collective humanity, and it did not even rank as a hurricane when it landed. When we get a few more ‘climate change’ storms we will at some turning point, come to grips with the changes that have happened while we weren’t looking, often in places we weren’t expecting. The Arctic has been our canary in the coal mine, but it is not a place we see in our everyday lives. Things like the Arctic dipole are influencing what we see now in our everyday lives. Recognizable climate change has started one of the megatrends that will be with us for a time. Richard Leakey and Roger Lewin wrote in the late nineties about the ‘sixth extinction’ that was underway. It is about the loss of species that has been happening now at such a pace that it is an ‘event’, and the role humans have come to play. The ironic part is that we as human’s will also be contributory the die-off of our own species. The die off has now begun with the marginalized members of our society and others, being pushed to the limits of their ability to survive and adapt. It is a megatrend that has just emerged, and will likely be around for quite some time. They are familiar with this struggle in some ways. It is just that the struggles and changes required have become as great as their abilities, and will exceed them with demands like surviving without housing, or power, or heat, such as that which has happened with the roughly 16,000 people without power even a month after Sandy. When storms devastate an area, such as what Katrina did to Biloxi Mississippi, it can take close to a decade for the impact area to come back. It happens that way in many other countries of the world, we just do not expect to see in our countries.

In reviewing the themes that captured our minds, the New York Times Best Sellers for 2012 represented politics, power, death, and mystery. There was a fixation with major political assassinations whether Lincoln, Kennedy, or Osama Bin Ladin, all of whom represented turning points in large social movements. We had searched for the greatness in our world that we had wanted to grasp, but which eluded us. We wanted to know how it has been done and read about how Jefferson and Lincoln had finessed political power. It was as if something important was gone, and we looked to get it back. We tried to solve the mysteries we read.

The year 2013 represents a time that as a collective group we have the ability to create a global discussion about the changes and challenges facing us, just it is not likely to happen for altogether common reasons. Denial allows us to explore alternative explanations, and slowly adapt to what may be an uncomfortable truth, if not an inconvenient truth. Geo-engineering experiments have begun, as some look to ways to shift our odds. We are geo-engineering our food, our environment, and even our own genomes. Most of it in random attempts to achieve some degree of control over our world.

While some of us tremble in fear of the mythology of Mayans predicting the end of the world in 2012,and others arguing it marks a transition point, it is notable that archaeologists today generally believe that a combination of elements brought about the collapse of the Mayan empire, likely severe drought and deforestation. The great disruptions that climate change has the potential to unleash, have usually brought great social change often in the form of collapse. We can only hope that 2013 is our lucky year when we begin to cooperate and communicate about more pressing issues, than a past which will not come back to us no matter how hard we look.

Related articles

• Scientists to reveal full extent of Arctic ice loss amid climate change fears (guardian.co.uk)
• Special Report: IPCC, assessing climate risks, consistently underestimates. (wwwp.dailyclimate.org)
• Accelerated Warming Driving Arctic Into New Volatile State (climatecentral.org)
• Arctic Report Card: Dark Times Ahead (scientificamerican.com)
• Less Arctic Ice–>Less Sunlight Reflected Back–>Even Less Arctic Ice (motherjones.com)
• Global warming breaking records in the Arctic say scientists (indybay.org)
• Arctic lost record snow and ice last year as data shows changing climate (guardian.co.uk)
• Climate is ‘Changing before our Eyes’ Says World Meteorological Organization (insurancejournal.com)

 

‘What in the World? The 100 Monkey Moment Approaches’ Trends Issue – Climate change is being accepted in socially significant ways.

Mary A Moore         Feb 4 2012

There have been many voices who have tried to capture the attention of the masses to the dangers of coming climate change. We may remember some of the more notable scientists and advocates of this issue. James Lovelock, Al Gore, Richard Leakey, and others have voiced their concern over the changes in significant patterns that existed, and that are now deviating.  Opponents of this message often take the point that nothing is inexplicably proven beyond the shadow of a doubt, and that may be so, but one of the more significant data graphs of climate change was presented to Congress in 2011. It is a historical graphing that everyone should view (see below), along with the smaller pieces of the puzzle that we can fit together, to give us a broader viewpoint upon the topic. Climate change is finally being recognized in a socially significant manner, after being pummelled by the IPPC ‘scandals’ of the past.

James Lovelock has perhaps the best thought out conceptualization of how as a collective group we will come about recognizing changes we see, as significant climate change and not just the usual variations that occur in nature. He speaks of how when catastrophic change happens, and we cannot refute climate change no longer, we collectively will panic. He feels this is most likely when some major coastal cities begin to flood. We are like the dying person in the Kubler-Ross model of grieving. We will first deny climate change despite evidence to the contrary, experience anger perhaps at those we feel are responsible or those we feel are not reacting appropriately, try to bargain our way out of this problem with behaviours such as carbon emission trading or using alternative energy, become depressed and distract ourselves with other issues such as the economy, and finally accept the reality of our situation. Lovelock speaks of the importance of quickly accepting what is coming and beginning to meet and speak of how to optimize our collective survival.

It may be helpful to compare data points some 200 years apart, and review what changes are found to help illustrate some of the smaller pieces of the puzzle. In doing this we can see how things in some locales have not changed significantly, some have changed drastically, and some have a layered, complexity, that effectively masks any conclusive evidence.This helps to illustrate the difficulties that we often have in picturing a ‘chaotic trend’ of a global nature. The books listed below are over two hundred years old and are an early example of what an encyclopedia set was, at that time. The quotes are from various pages of the collection.

“The Wonders of Nature and Art, or a Concise Account of Whatever is Most Curious and Remarkable in the World;Compiled from Historical and Geographical Works of Established celebrity, and illustrated with the discoveries of modern travellers.”  By the Rev. Thomas Smith, Author of the Universal Atlas, Sacred Mirror, &c &c. Revised, corrected and improved by James Mease M.D. Member of the American Philosophical Society, and Corresponding member of the Literary and Philosophical Society of Manchester. Philidelphia 1806-1807

…’The soil at Churchill Fort, which lies in latitude 59 degrees 0 minutes, is generally rocky near the sea coast, very dry, and bare of vegetables.There are no woods within seven miles of the shore, and consequently the Factory is exposed to the inclemency of the weather,especially in the winter season.The woods here are considerably smaller than at Fort York; the trees which they consist are junipers,pines, poplars, and willows, but so insignificantly small, that it is with some difficulty the Winter’s fire-wood is procured for the factory; and the farther the traveller proceeds to the northward, the barer he will find the earth of every vegetable….At Churchill the winters are very long, and the cold intensely severe. About the latter end of October, the shortening of the days, the coldness of the weather,and other indications, proclaim the proximity of winter; and from that time until the middle of May, this part of the world is buried in frost and snow…. Much of the same can be said of the climate of York Fort, excepting that difference to be expected of a more southerly situation. The sun rises on the shortest day at eight hours, forty-eight minutes, twelve seconds.’

p250-251 Chapter Seven ‘Hudson’s Bay Climate, &c.’  Volume XI

…’Amongst the natural wonders of the Alps, the Glaciers, or valley’s of ice, are most particularly deserving of this attention; and those may be divided into the Upper and Lower Glaciers, the first covering the declivities of the mountains, and the others covering the intermediate valleys….The thickness of the ice appears to vary considerably in different parts; for M.Saussure observes, that in the Glacier des Bois, he did not find it exceed a hundred feet, though he was credibly informed that in other places it was upwards of six hundred feet….A celebrated traveller (Mr.Coxe) who visited the Glacier de Bois informs us, that its appearance at a distance,was really tremendous, and that the design of crossing it seemed utterly impractical…’In the valley of Monteverte’ says the same respectable writer, we beheld a spacious icy plain, upon which there rose a mountain of ice, with steps ascending to the top, and resembling the throne of some divinity….From one of the opening of Charmouny, the river Arbarion rushes under two arches of ice.’

p2-5   Chapter Four  ‘Of Italy’. Volume II

…’The climate of Egypt is extremely hot, not only from the height of the sun which in summer approaches to the zenith, but also from the want of the rain, and from the vicinity of those burning and sandy deserts which lie to the south.  In the month’s of July and August, Reamur‘s thermometer stands, even in the most temperate apartments, at twenty four degrees above the freezing point (86 of Fahrenheit), and in the southern provinces it is said to rise still higher….In the Delta it never rains in the summer, and very seldom at any time. In 1761 however, such a quantity of rain unexpectedly fell, that a number of mud- houses were completely destroyed by being soaked with the water. ..The native country of the Nile being now discovered, the cause of its inundation is manifest.To say nothing of the  false conjectures being made, it is now universally allowed to be occasioned by the great rains that fall in Ethiopia during the months of April and May, whereby the river is so swelled as to lay that country under water, and afterwards Egypt in its course towards the Mediterranean….The Nile begins to swell in the month of May, but its increase is not considerable in the lower Egypt til about the 20th of June., nor is any public notice taken of it until the 28th of that month, at which time it is usually risen about five or six peeks, a Turkish measure equal to about five and twenty inches…If the Nile does not rise to sixteen peeks, the people pay no tribute that year to the Signior; but a still greater height is necessary to cause a general flood, and prepare the land for cultivation. Eighteen peeks are reckoned, but an indifferent Nile, twenty a middling one, and twenty-two a very good one beyond which it seldom rises.’

p40, p52-54  Part III,  Chapter I    ‘Africa’    Volume VII

Two data graph of climate change based on a Berkley study:

 

This video shows temperature data since the 1800’s and it is not until 2000 that changes become apparent.

In examining other record sources, we comparing the locales listed in the books with how they are two hundred years later and look at how these areas have transitioned through time.

Fort Churchill has had several claims to fame for a small northern outpost. From rocket testing site in the 50’s and 60’s, to a failed aerospace launch site called ‘Spaceport Canada‘, to an eco-tourism center where they came to see the ‘Aurora Borealis’. The Timezone in Fort Churchill is America/Rankin_Inlet Sunrise at 08:19 and Sunset at 16:41. Latitude. 58.75570763°, Longitude. -94.079018075° Temperature: -9°C / 15.8°F Wind: 9.2km/h West/Northwest Cloud: Few at 10000 ft. It still is one of the colder places on earth where man ventures.

The Glacier des Bois, named for the fact it once reached the hamlet known as Des Bois, gives us perhaps the most striking illustration of recent climate change when observed over a period of 400 years, as data exist from the 1600’s. Eugene Casparian author of ‘Evolution of the Mer de Glace Glacier’, as the Glacier des Bois is currently known, shows us the data that gives us a chilling picture of recent changes to the historical variations of glacier ebb and flow.

http://cinqcontinents.uv.ro/1/1_2_Casparian.pdf

His conclusions are as follows:

‘CONCLUSIONS
• The fact that Mer de Glace is retreating is undeniable and can be {sic} seened using field
observation that show a modification in the shape of the glacier. Starting with the 17th
century onwards, the lenght of the glacier is decreasing constantly, in the 20th
century this speed increases considerably and after 1990, the situation becomes alarming [1].
• The fact that the glacier is situated in western Europe, at a median latitude and with
a northern exposure makes the glacier an ideal subject for studying the {sic}efects of global warming over glacier dynamics.
• Although afected by rising temperatures in the frontal area of the glacier, we can
observe that higher up its thickness remains unafected.
• Following the evolution of the glaciers along a great period of time and using
tridimensional computer modeling,we can conclude that the melting will continue in a
more accelerated rhythm [9].
• The decisive factor in ice melting is the summer heatwaves.Although they can be
decisive for the lower part of the glacier,its upper part remains allmost impervious to the
{sic}fenomenon.
• The graphic sources, like sketches and paintings are usefull for a more objective view
of the modifications in the glacier and also to make ones self an ideea of the scale of the
landscape [6], [7]. As a consequence of this,we can construct unique case studyies, besides comparing the evolution not only at the basis of climate data.  
We can reconstruct, using this method: the history of the glacier, we can {sic}cuantify the
variation of the glacier.
• Mer de Glace was the glacier on which most of the {sic}thories of glaciology were first
{sic}enounciated [2].
• Although glaciology takes its roots back to the 18th century,a lot of things are not realy knowned,especially about the flow of the glacier as a plastic body,rather then a fluid
[2].
• It is absolutely necessary to observe the glacier for a long period of time in a very
minute and meticulous way. This kind of observation reveals the changes in ice mass and
the impact of climate change on ice. It also gives us the model from wich we can make
predictions for the future…’

In Egypt, the Nile has provided the fertile valley for thousands of years in its annual rhythms, the basis of life – water. The depth of the Nile is subject to just more than natural variation, as water management has been in practice for centuries. The issue is contentious, and countries at the head of the Nile have been denied access to irrigation needs, as Egypt’s population needs have boomed over the last century. The shortages of abundance of water determines whether the food harvests will be adequate or not. Politics, increasing usage, and natural variation has affected the water of the Nile. The building of any dams up river has a major impact for Egypt, and both Ethiopia and the Sudan have dams coming online in the near future. What a water shortage and associated changes in food production will have on the current Revolution in Egypt, is a wild card that may destabilize the region even further.

Social theory has several versions of how tipping points are reached. The ‘100 monkey moment’ colloquial terminology is best suited as being representative of reaching this tipping point, rather than being the definition of the tipping point. I will define this point, as the point at which we begin to panic collectively over climate change. It will mark a shift in our collective thoughts about the definitive causation of a major geographical event as being climate change, and we will perceive ourselves as being in danger. Our perceptions of the change has been muddied by the nonlinear, upward trend. Micro-climates further mask change, until a large enough dynamic has been altered.

To date one of the earliest examples of visible climate change we are currently experiencing have been the increasing Arctic oscillations. These oscillations have also been commented on in the past by the UN, as possibly indicating that climate change will first come to us from the poles, where temperature increases are larger than those experienced around the equator.

The winter of 2011-2012 has seen the largest upswing of the jet stream.  “The cause of this warm first half of winter is the most extreme configuration of the jet stream ever recorded,” according to Jeffrey Masters, a meteorologist who runs the Weather Underground, a Web site that analyses severe weather data. The Inuit have noted a change in their environment for several years, but their observations are anecdotal in origin. Interest in the north has increased since the Arctic ice has begun melting in earnest, and the waterways have become increasingly open to naval travel. Countries have already been competing to claim a stake in the vast uninhabited lands of the north.  There already is the issue of the Antarctic Ice melt which is not covered in most discussions, as the rate of temperature change at the south pole is slower than the north, but happening none the less. We would be wise to put into place a plan ‘A and B’ of action to deal with the fall out and panic, rather than just plan to react when needed.

Some of the more interesting explorations now under way already include influencing weather with the use of ionization and magnetic fields on the atmosphere to change weather patterns. Other methods such as seeding clouds have been in place for some time to enhance precipitation in certain areas.

October 2012 Update:

Yale environmental has recently published a study that states: 

‘A large and growing majority of Americans say “global warming is affecting weather in the United States” (74%, up 5 points since our last national survey in March 2012). Americans increasingly say weather in the U.S. has been getting worse over the past several years (61%, up 9 percentage points since March).A majority of Americans (58%) say that heat waves have become more common in their local area over the past few decades, up 5 points since March, with especially large increases in the Northeast and Midwest (+12 and +15 points, respectively).’

The loss of Arctic Ice has been drastic and noticed this year. It has been a record shrink for Sept 2012. July 2012 saw a record in Taiwan with UV radiation levels spiking. A solar storm is hitting the earth at this year and the effects of being close to China’s vast pollution may have made it an especially vulnerable area, although they are recording the data well, and have even launched a mobile app for in UV levels recently. In August of this year most of us have noticed the recent heat this summer as part of an increase in the general awareness for climate change. This summer marks one of the hottest on record both in temperature, UV radiation levels, and the effects of geomagnetic radiation.  Storms have knocked our power, the grid in India failed at a time when a geomagnetic storm was hitting us, and we have felt the true heat often masked by our A/C and indoor lifestyle, when our power failed.  One question we can ask is whether these weather changes are just the effects of a solar flare, the combination of a solar flare and global warming, or a potent trigger for faster than anticipated climate change.

 

Related articles

• Island nations want climate change in world court. (newsinfo.inquirer.net)
• Colorado Independent: climate change skepticism rising like ocean levels (junkscience.com)
• The Ethics of Climate Change Denial (bigthink.com)
• Mapping the future of climate change in Africa (terradaily.com)
• On Eve of UN Earth Summit, Green Guru Lovelock Slams UN IPCC & Greens: ‘Whenever UN puts its finger in it seems to become a mess’– ‘So-called sustainable development is meaningless drivel’ (climatedepot.com)
• Must-Read Hansen: ‘Climate Change Is Here – And Worse Than We Thought’ (thinkprogress.org)
• Godfather of Global Warming Is Less Alarmed Now (hawaiireporter.com)
• Gaia Man says cool it on global warming (thebrightlibertarian.blogspot.com)
• BS du jour: Climate Armageddon: How the World’s Weather Could Quickly Run Amok [Excerpt] (junkscience.com)
• What Climate Solutions Can We Achieve Together? (thinkprogress.org)

‘Sensing our Censors’ – Increasing Censorship and the Influence of Social Media and the Internet

Mary A Moore Feb 1 2012

The principle known as ‘Network Neutrality’ or ‘Internet Neutrality‘ allows Internet users to access any web content or applications they choose, without restriction or limitation. In 1990, John Perry Barlow, along  with Mitchell Kapor, wrote a beautiful piece about the Internet in “Across the Electronic Frontier”…

‘Over the last fifty years, the people of the developed world have begun to cross into a landscape unlike any which humanity has experienced before. It is a region without physical shape or form…what it is eventually called, it is the homeland of the Information Age, the place where the future is destined to dwell…’

This is the internet’s age of a loss of innocence. Long gone are the words of John Perry Barlow, as he wrote in 1996 in his treatise “A Declaration of the Independence of Cyberspace”...I declare the global space we are building to be naturally independent of the tyrannies you seek to impose on us. You have no moral right to rule us nor do you possess any method of enforcement we have true reason to fear…’

There are many conceptualizations of the internet from ‘Ecommerce’, to ‘information highway’, to ‘social network’, to ‘cultural sound bite’, to ‘political governance and control’, to a massive collective – “the Borg”, if you will. The internet has become the transformational driver it was destined to become. It has and will further enhance all aspects of our lives, and as its importance continues to grow, so too will the war over control escalate into a fundamental battle of who and what values will dominate, in what region. The nationalization / regionalization of the internet has already begun, as has a drift effect. Much like a slow moving creek that has been enlarged into a fast flowing river, the local growth and values have been watered down and washed away; and to continue the analogy, much of what we do now is a matter of going along with the flow. The question is who is trying to control the flow.

In the video below, John Barlow gives an overview of the evolution of the internet and the struggles it has had, to remain in the domain of the average citizen.

John Barlow on the Internet and the Right to Knowledge

Recently we have heard about SOPA with the Google and Wiki campaigns trying to raise awareness. Rupert Murdoch went on a rant on Twitter to attack Google and others who supported a review of SOPA legislation.

…”Don’t care about people not buying movies, programs or newspapers, just stealing them.”…

Mr Murdoch, who joined Twitter at the start of this year, blocked Google from featuring content from News International newspapers when they went behind paywalls, and has previously called Google a “parasite”. An interesting comment from a man who media empire has been in the news for illegally hacking phones for story material.

First it was Twitter, then Google, then Blogger, then… how many others already had censorship, but it was not common knowledge. Where does censorship start and stop. When Facebook kept facial recognition data did that fact deter participants in countries that do not allow free speech from expressing themselves freely on Facebook. What if a foreign government was able to hack into this data? There are mountains of data being kept on social media sites. Some are turned into trends, and others pick out obscure words, so when some tourists are banned from visiting a country because of what they said on a social media site, we should all start to wonder has Big Brother finally arrived in our lives as a faceless watcher over the internet, monitoring our every move.

Global companies on the other hand have to deal with the regulatory environment in various countries, with vastly different sets of values and customs. If one would review a list of countries that frequently block access to social media sites, one may see a pattern of rigid, controlling societies, some of which social media has been used in to upset the status quo, and resulted in revolutionary fervor in regions such as the Middle East. India is currently engaged in a major effort to try and control what is shown in social media. The authorities claim some material is inciting civil strife, and others are offending religious sensibilities. Where does free speech leave off, and inciting hatred begin. How free is the person who is abused in a photo or video, that is being freely posted on the internet? When cyber bullies and hackers hurt businesses they have moral issues with, is this internet freedom or criminal behaviour? The rules that regulate our behaviour in the real world have come to the virtual world of the internet,  irregardless of John Barlow’s wishes . The internet however, has a global connection and impacts are felt globally. What values will dominate, and where. Perhaps the next stage of internet evolution will be the development of a global set of values

Even in what one would consider a source of information – the local public library, internet filtering software that work here have been found to censor. Peacefire.org discovered that political websites had been blocked by some filtering software used in public institutions http://www.peacefire.org/blind-ballots/ along with some Amnesty International sites http://www.peacefire.org/amnesty-intercepted/

In a year that will see several major elections, along with the second spring of the revolutionary movements in the middle east and elsewhere, we can expect tremendous pressure on social media, as efforts are made to influence and control our collective thoughts, emotions, and behaviours. The traditional media has always played a role in the shaping of our culture. Now social media with its global nature, and multiplier effects is taking a major role in shaping our world. It is re-shifting the balance of power, and changing the dynamics of the world as we know it.

Related articles

• Thailand Couldn’t Be Happier About Twitter’s Censorship (forbes.com)
• Twitter CEO: We’re Not Censoring the Internet (mashable.com)
• Twitter Blackout: Censorship Protest Urges Users to ‘Go Dark’ Saturday for #TwitterBlackout (ibtimes.com)
• Something Extra: Twitter Censorship Revolution (miami.cbslocal.com)
• India Moves To Censor Social Media (yro.slashdot.org)
• #Cyber-Civics (avaya.com)
• John Perry Barlow: I don’t regard my expression as a form of property. (sharingisliberty.wordpress.com)
• Defining the ‘We’ in the Declaration of Internet Freedom (theatlantic.com)
• Censoring social media fans flames of social unrest (esciencenews.com)
• censorship and repressing social movements (orgtheory.wordpress.com)
• China’s Sina Weibo Unveils New Censorship System (voanews.com)
• Internet Censorship: Is a Declaration of Internet Freedom What the Internet Needs? (censorshipinamerica.com)
• This brilliant TED video explains China’s Internet censorship regime (thenextweb.com)
• No, we’re not trying to censor the Internet: Sibal #Joke (kractivist.wordpress.com)
• IHT Rendezvous: Taking It to the Street in China (rendezvous.blogs.nytimes.com)

2011 Commentary

Mary A Moore

The Year that was… 2011

The year 2011 saw a multitude of changes, some of the larger being the Arab Revolution which toppled dictators that had been entrenched in power for decades; the death of Steve Jobs, one of the revolutionary technology leaders – as the creator of the Apple ‘clan’, and whose technology is still rippling changes through society; and the push back of autocratic societies that are feeling the air of revolution blowing around the globe. With the theme of ‘Revolution’ firmly imprinted upon this year, and as it draws to a close, we had a changeover of the guardians this past weekend, with the death of Vaclav Havel and Kim Jung II. It seems almost preposterous to consider them both with the term revolutionary, but they represent the alpha and the omega of many a revolution.

Vaclav Havel, the leader of the velvet revolution in his native Czechoslovakia, fought for his society to be free. From the day his communist government forbade him the opportunity to pursue a university degree in the Humanities, he set a course for his life into the human experience. Through his plays, his books, and his political leadership, he championed the cause of liberation. From speaking out in 1968 with the Prague Spring and spending much of his life in jail, under surveillance, under censorship, and under repression of his own humanity, to the President of an independent Czech Republic. Vaclav Havel lived his humanity to its fullest. A revolutionary success story, as it were.

‘Inhumane contrast’, was the theme of the son of a revolutionary – Kim II Sung. His son – Kim Jong iI enjoyed the life of privilege he was given. He may have been born in Siberia, not far from the gulags, where he sent the political dissidents who challenged him, and his father may have been a Red Army member and friendly towards ‘Stalinism’ and all it represented, but Kim Jong-il did not suffer from hunger, fight any great wars, or hold power through any accomplishment other than a developed cult of personality. Kim Jung II was at the helm at one of the most brutal times in North Korean history, with hundreds of thousands dying of starvation in the 1990’s. Now that he too has died, his son, Kim Jong-un, is the third generation leadership of the revolution. The succession of power being started in 2011, with the purging of any possible challengers, and succession was planned for 2012. This revolution had left repression, death and extreme poverty in its wake, as its leaders enjoyed its wealth. North Korea is not just a failed state, but a failed revolution.

If 2010 was on the ‘edge of evolution’, 2011 was the ‘year of the revolution’. In America the books bought reflected an interest in past ‘revolutionary’ heroes. Americans read about George Washington (The American Revolution), Jack Kennedy ( The 60’s revolution), Lincoln (The American Civil War), and of course Steve Jobs (The Apple Revolution), and yearned for knowing about the unusual, whether it was about life after death through the eyes of a boy, cells of immortality from a dead woman, or a friendship or encounter beyond the usual. From 2011 we can project into 2012 the trend of change, tumultuous change, that generally follows a period of revolutionary zeal. We can also predict the push back of rigid societies that have not tolerated change and are seeking to hold to a past which is quickly slipping through their fingers. The year will be chaotic and and heavily conflicted, as change pushes its way through, in various shapes and forms, perhaps some that were not intended, or ever expected. Please note that this and the following statements, are opinions.

The middle east will be a hot bed of conflict like never seen before, as the forces of change, a youthful generation longing for change runs headstrong into the wall of an aged powerful elite, as secular social forces push into the bastions of religious control, and as the powerful pull out their big guns to try to stem the tide. Another major trend still running is the financial crisis and trade imbalances. The west will continue to rebalance the past and future amidst political stress, as Europe fractures in and out of the E.U., and America faces an election year. Watch for assassination attempts as power struggles emerge on the edges of fighting in heavily conflicted areas, and in power vacuums.

Perhaps one of the bigger, but not as headlined stories will be the emergence of climate change being understood by the general public. We are closing in on the ‘one hundred monkeys’, a theoretical concept where the moment arrives when enough of the population knows and understand an idea, that it becomes powerfully communicated and understood, within the group. As we begin to experience more climate change, more of us will tune into the concept and its implications. The transmission of this effect will be enhanced by social media.

 Technology will continue to have massive transformative effects upon our societies, but will be slowed by our lack of infrastructure to handle this as yet. Industries will continue to change and reinvent themselves. Adaption and prediction will become more of a critical business focus. As the rate and spread of change increase, our comfort in living within the process, and ability to do so, will improve. These trends will emerge out of a 2012 change process, and continue well past the decade. The rate of which we can adapt, will distinguish those societies that will survive this period of transition, and those that will not.

The theme of change in 2012 is hardly a new one. It has been long discussed as a transitional point. From http://www.adishakti.org

“Both the Hopis and Mayans recognize that we are approaching the end of a World Age… In both cases, however, the Hopi and Mayan elders do not prophesy that everything will come to an end. Rather, this is a time of transition from one World Age into another. The message they give concerns our making a choice of how we enter the future ahead. Our moving through with either resistance or acceptance will determine whether the transition will happen with cataclysmic changes or gradual peace and tranquility. The same theme can be found reflected in the prophecies of many other Native American visionaries from Black Elk to Sun Bear.”
— Joseph Robert Jochmans

Happy holidays and the best of luck to all in 2012, the year of change.

A reminder of 2011 courtesy of JIBJAB

www.youtu.be/2zls4Ao3GyM

Related articles

• Good Reads: Remembrances of Vaclav Havel, Christopher Hitchens, and Kim Jong-il (video) (csmonitor.com)
• Havel and Jong il (gabrielconstans.wordpress.com)
• Remembering Vaclav Havel: Live Truth to Seek Justice (indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com)
• Kim Jong-il and Vaclav Havel; Two Very Different Leaders Pass (ibtimes.com)
• Vaclav Havel and Kim Jong Il come together on news coverage (conycontratodos.wordpress.com)
• RIP Vaclav Havel, Leader Against Communist Oppression (waronterrornews.typepad.com)

The Great Wave of Revolution : Trends Issue – Global Social Unrest Increasing

‘The Great Wave of Revolution’

Mary A Moore

Sept 29 2011

We have seen signs of social unrest lately in a variety of locations we might normally expect such as the Middle East, Iran, and China. What we might not have expected is for social unrest to start spreading across Europe into the America’s, as changes related to the financial collapse continue to unfold. Triggers may include minor extraneous stressors such as the colder weather, increasing levels of fear, and open confrontation from both sides, impacting major issues such as continued unemployment, homelessness, and rising austerity. A grassroots movement is starting to galvanize in the United States in response to the prolonged changes in the economy. In the depression of the dirty thirties, there was an occupation of the areas surrounding the White House by unpaid ex-military who felt unjustly treated, which was eventually forcefully and brutally suppressed by the actual military ordered by Hoover, who paid dearly for this politically. In this instance the occupation is galvanizing around the symbol of the cause of the financial collapse – Wall Street, with a group called ‘occupywallstreet.org’ with some minor skirmishes having already happened between the police and the protesters.

The group is beginning to organize via social media, and this is picking interest and connection in Europe as well. A live streaming internet TV station has been created and is calling itself ‘global revolution’. While the organization of this group is primarily being driven by youth elements, this movement is picking up steam with other social protest groups such as Wikileaks, and Anonymous, and celebrities such as Micheal Moore and Susan Sarandon. New York City Transit workers are planning to join the protest on next Friday October 5th. If organized labor joins the movement formally, we may have reached a critical mass for social change being engaged, and this will become a force to be reckoned with by various levels of government. Early attempts at Social media censorship are being reported in media such as Al Jazeera with the following report being posted on their internet site:

“On at least two occasions, Saturday September 17 and again on Thursday night, Twitter blocked #OccupyWallStreet from being featured as a top trending topic on their homepage. On both occasions,#OccupyWallStreet tweets were coming in more frequently than other top trending topics that they were featuring on their homepage. This is blatant political censorship on the part of a company that has recently received a $400 million investment from JP Morgan Chase.”

 

From the wikileaks central site, the following excerpt outlines the spread of similar organizations starting to rally across the country that are beginning to take hold.

‘The volunteer based website Occupy Together, whose aim is to create a site that would help spread the word as more protests organize across the country, counts over 70 registered protests in U.S. cities. Apart from the main occupations, currently on-going in New York, Chicago and Denver, many will start in the following weeks to coincide with the global protest day of October 15th. In the following days, parks and squares in Los Angeles, San Francisco, Washington D.C., Kansas City, Houston, among others, will be occupied.’

OWS New York City: October 2011

A ‘global day of protest’ is planned for Oct 15th, and while this movement is in the initial stages of formation, it will prove interesting to see how much support this larger protest is able to garnish in the next few days. There are three phases to the protest in New York from a march on the banks in the A.M., to a student get together after lunch, and finally a demonstration at Times Square in the evening. On Friday the gathering of protesters by Wall Street is a collection of a variety of characters from youthful rebels, hard core anarchists, elderly activists, and a women who brought her 3 young daughters to the protest. All of whom were easily out numbered by the media that were present.

The Protesters

The Photo Collection and the Stories

Dave Silver, an elderly New Yorker with a walker, was one of those protesters. He was quick to point out that he had been there for the sixties social unrest, and he understood that this was another of those times where as he felt you had to ‘stand up to be counted.’ Dave was a decorated WWII vet with a bronze star, jail time from the sixties protests, and a friend of the Black Panthers. ‘I came from a progressive Jewish family’, he explained. He recalled the sixties marches as heated, where ‘heads were bashed on both sides’ and admired the protesters of today for sticking it out day after day. ‘In the sixties we protested fiercely and then went home after it was done.’ He encouraged the group to become more organized with deciding what they wanted, ‘they need to know what they want’, as he had done on the sign he wore on his chest. ‘The list is the way we can save trillions of dollars’ he stated.

Eric, was a forty something man dressed impeccably in a pin stripe suit, and was in sharp contrast to the rather tired looking crew of younger protesters. With a purple sash about his arm, wilted flower in the lapel, and the requisite mask now symbolic of the online group known as ‘Anonymous’, he stood prominently on a corner waving his sign to the crowd. A sign carried the message that… ‘If a corporation was a person, it would be a sociopath.’ When asked about his stance. Eric spoke of a study where the behaviours of a corporation were analyzed through a MMPI, a psychological test that is used to measure personality features, amongst other things, and that corporate behaviours scored as a sociopath. As an entity, ‘that it cared nothing than about itself’. Eric also spoke of corporations using the 14th amendment to protect their rights as equal to that of a person, ‘although we know that it is not a person’. He continued his argument that ‘the 14th amendment was designed to keep men equal under the eyes of the law,… it helped to end slavery. It was never meant for a corporation.’ Eric had tried to make his past grievances about the Bush Administration known to his Congressman, only to be ignored. He had ran for Congress as a Green party member just to get the opportunity to debate his Congressman, but no debate was ever held. He tried to ask questions at Town Hall meetings that were essential vetted phone call questions, of which his were never allowed. So, he came today to the protest in his finest, knowing how he looked in the mask and what the sign said, was ‘a bit of theater…and theater has been used for centuries to get a message across’. The questions that Eric asks ‘Are corporations more important than citizens’, and ‘has government become.. by the corporation for the corporation.’

‘Mike’ was a young beaded musician who was just passing through town and decided to join the protest. He said he could understand how ‘both side of the fence’ think, as he worked in business, and yet understood it was time for a change.

The Press Representative for the protest stated they had gathered about $130,000 in donations so far, mainly from people who had come by in person. This figure quickly escalated to over $300,000. They were still organizing a structure and groups were working on various issues. They had not thought so far ahead as to think whether they thought they could be an influence in the 2012 elections.

The Protests

The protest march that was held the next day was loud, peaceful, and well attended by various factions of society. They enjoyed the full assistance of the NYPD who worked hard at clearing the sidewalks in advance of the chanting crowd approaching, and managing the difficult job of coordinating the traffic intersections affected. The crowds gathered again in various locales across the city as the day progressed, but were generally peaceful.  This day of protest was enacted across the world in the major areas most affected by the financial crisis and collapse. There were some minor arrests, but New York was for the most part a peaceful event, in comparison to places such as Rome. From these events we can start to examine the underlying cognitions and facilitating factors with these trends, as well as examine where these trends can take us further.

The Thinking

An excerpt from the Website Zero Hedge had a comment about the some of the underlying changes in thinking in society that have preceded collapse.

‘Interestingly, there are some forms of theoretical mathematics which allow false conclusions to be presented as fact, and this same methodology of fuzzy logic is consistently used by moral relativist to achieve the appearance of reason. At bottom, intellectual prowess accomplishes little without the disciplines of experience, emotion, and insight. Cultures which widely abandon the guidelines of conscience always find themselves subject to collapse, whether economic or political. Without the ability to feel empathy for the victims of one’s actions, any disaster becomes possible.’

Perhaps in a time of burgeoning technology we should examine the social risk that computers, algorithms, and forms of inanimate collectivity ultimately create. Does a society or segment of society ultimately become self-limiting by the virtue that part of its critical decision making processes have no emotional component, and no context for which to make critical judgments. Are computers psychopathic in nature?

In the economic collapse that this social unrest follows, a lack of regulatory oversight has been the focused upon causative factor, but it is not the only issue, and in fact, the role that technology had in the development of this disaster, is often minimized. Our technological society was endless with electronic media advertisements of the ‘good life’, and how to achieve it, even though most could not afford it. From the online mortgage application, to the ‘robo-signing’ of documents, money was borrowed, re-leveraged, and repackaged endlessly down the chain, from basic consumer credit to the re-supply of money to troubled banks that made money lending out money, they never had. This technological orgy had been what kept society from realizing the full impact of globalization, and noticing the concentration of wealth in the hands of fewer and fewer. Now that the facade has also been revealed, and our current plight emphasized by technology as well, we have the ‘multiplier effect’ on social unrest, and global social unrest.

There is with some, a simplistic political wish for some nostalgic return to past economic eras, such as Reagon’s ‘Trickle Down’ economic theory which unfortunately has benefited the wealthy more, with the net trickle up of wealth. Returning to these policies would only continue the present trajectory, and without the facade of the unregulated, technological enhancement of money, unemployment will linger. It remains to be seen whether the awakening social unrest will jar governments into a new style of functioning, or whether reactionary forces will create a further response, such the emergence of new domestic or regional political parties, or the strengthening of ‘global political parties’ such as the green movement.

From the following quote from the Washington Post  illustrates that we recognize that this is a global issue that we lack the institutions and structure to effectively deal with, as problems are developing across various countries and regions. We have to look at developing new democratic structures at a larger global scale, or we are at the mercy of other global organizations, such as multinational corporations, who can exert influence at a global level.

‘The emergence of an international protest movement without a coherent program is therefore not an accident: It reflects a deeper crisis, one without an obvious solution. Democracy is based on the rule of law. Democracy works only within distinct borders and among people who feel themselves to be part of the same nation. A global community cannot be a national democracy. And a national democracy cannot command the allegiance of a billion-dollar global hedge fund, with its headquarters in a tax haven and its employees scattered around the world… we have democratic institutions in the Western world. They are designed to reflect, at least crudely, the desire for political change within a given nation. But they cannot cope with the desire for global political change, nor can they control things that happen outside their borders. Although I still believe in globalization economic and spiritual benefits along with open borders, freedom of movement and free trade globalization has clearly begun to undermine the legitimacy of Western democracies.’

2012 Waves Expand and Deepen

While the Occupy movement symbolizes unrest in democracies, other larger countries such as Russia and China are experiencing their own rebellious subterfuge. These ‘post CCP’ revolutions may emerge upon larger impacts felt economically, such as the Euro zone crisis worsening in the spring and causing economic chaos in China, and for Russia the next national election also comes in spring of 2012. It is not surprising that their UN vetoes took place in the context of fear, a fear of change in authoritarian regions that may have contagion for them. Hong Kong is now feeling increased pressure from  mainland China as its previous greater economic power is being usurped by those in power in the mainland, to develop additional resources as the mainland starts to hurt economically. The Chinese population and independent media is beginning to openly criticize the government, and further economic stress could worsen this into a more significant social reaction. In Russia, what is being mislabeled as the ‘White Revolution’ by those who do not remember that traditionally ‘White Russians’ were the Czar’s army, and not a democratic movement, is perhaps more accurate in its historical sense. Russian government is being re-created in the authoritative structure of a Czar -Czar Putin. The Russian people have had a limited history with democratic forms of government, and have a greater likelihood of seeking a strong authoritarian figure unless the geography of Russia changes significantly. Russia’s ‘White Revolution’ may signal a return more to the past than the future. Mortality rates are still high and the average lifespan between male and female exceeds ten years. The bulk of the population is middle-aged or younger, with the average age around the late thirties. Czar Putin can expect some younger bucks to try him as an opponent, but he is unlikely to be toppled as yet at the age of 59.

Middle Eastern regions already in the stages of revolution, are escalating into a major push back by those feeling the pressure of change. Egypt’s current government is battling the expectations of democratic change, while setting course on maintaining their power base. A free Libya is struggling to settle old scores and create a just society where there has been none for almost half a century. Syria and Iran are gunning their own people down to stop revolutionary fervour. Syria is most likely of the two to fall in the near future. Iran, while showing signs of economic stress, is still able to lash out and ignite sectarian violence in strategic regions, and as such maintains a position of strength and influence. Israel remains in a defensively aggressive posture after the assassinations of Iranian nuclear scientists, coupled with previous misadventure with Turkey and the Gaza Flotilla, and a Muslim Brotherhood who wants their cake and to eat it too, threatening to nullify the peace treaty with Israel if the Americans cut off any funding, after Egypt authorities arrested American NGO personnel. The middle east remains a critical tinderbox of escalating conflict that has gone beyond the initial democratic call of its people.

June 2012

Youth protests worldwide are continuing to interconnect. Current protests in Montreal over tuition increases and government restrictions on protests which have unleashed an even larger turnout of Quebecer’s protesting the restrictions and attitude of the government, which has now been called ‘the awakening’. These protests have been connected to the OWS movement in the USA with solidarity protests, and other protests such as the Ontario students planned protest, also done in solidarity and to raise similar issues about tuition costs.

Chris Hedges spoke about social activism and the recent OWS and Montreal protests, in the context of past revolutions and periods of social change that he has witnessed.

Egypt has begun the countdown to a new president that they are to elect. The process has heated up students protests against the military led government and judiciary, which has since acquitted everyone except Mubarak, who was sentenced to life in prison. The election has been filled with acrimony and scurrilous activities, with everything from candidates being disqualified after acceptance, the arson of party headquarters, the armed attacks of thugs on student protesters in the night, to the nonpayment of civil servants before the election. The final vote for president whatever the outcome, should bring to the head the battle for power between the old guard and the revolution.

October 2012

The Occupy movement has officially began to morph as an official form of protest into categories outside of the discontent with the financial collapse and the economic difficulties felt globally. Occupy Monsanto has enveloped the category of food, and food sustainability. The issue of terminator seeds, corporate control of food and farmer dependency, has led to the development of an ‘organic’ alternative-a farmer run seed supply chain, and a social backlash to the unsustainable policies of agricultural conglomerates and their GMO products. A pivotal vote to take place in the usual breakwater state of California, to mandate the identification of foods as GMO, or not, in a Right to Know campaign.

Related articles

• Michele Hunt: The Genie Is Out of the Bottle — People Everywhere are Claiming Life Liberty and the Pursuit of Happiness (huffingtonpost.com)
• Wall Street Protestors from Coast to Coast (onemorecup.wordpress.com)
• Why Are They Occupying Wall Street? (indiancountrytodaymedianetwork.com)
• ‘The Protester’ Is Time’s Person Of The Year (news.sky.com)
• Homeland Security, Revolution, and Occupy Wall Street (sixestate.com)
• Imagining a Post-Occupy Social Movement (counterpunch.org)
• ‘Second wave of protest’ planned by evicted Occupy London protesters (thisislondon.co.uk)
• Why censoring social media might mean more-violent protests (gigaom.com)
• The Police and the Occupy Movement (counterpunch.org)
• The Art of Resistance (Pt3): Squatting, Books and Haircuts on the Picket Line (wandacanton.wordpress.com)
• It’s Time To Create An OccuParty (anonymousgeneration.wordpress.com)
• Researcher says he can see cycles in history. Predicts wave of violence in 2020 (nature.com)

Shifting Gears : Trends Issue – Changing World Dynamics

Mary A Moore       Originally Published June 25th 2011

‘When the USSR dissolved from history, many of us simply felt that this was the West in triumph. However, now that the west has begun to hit the cusp of a radical transformation of our own, we may begin to ask – ‘what is really going on here?’ There are a few conceptual frameworks to see these changes, perhaps best described by one of the original futurologist Alvin Toffler, in his trilogy of books ‘Future Shock‘,(1970) ‘Third Wave‘,(1980) and ‘Powershift‘(1990). One conceptual theory called Panarchy would call this the Omega or release phase going towards the Alpha or re-organization / renewal phase, where we have shifted towards another level or regime, in an evolutionary viewpoint. An article by Thomas Homer-Dixon (photo left) reviews panarchy theory and what it tells us, in Our ‘Panarchic Future‘

In societies that once were heavily industrialized, unions lament the loss of their industry to China or other newly industrialized countries, and economists lament the damage we have done to the value of our currency and economy. If this global financial collapse is simply a developmental change process to a new information age and a restructuring of our global currency and the meaning of money, are we really dealing with the issues in a forward looking manner? Interestingly enough, the man who coined the term ‘perestroika’ and ‘glasnost’ and who unleashed the change forces pent up in his own country and allowed it’s transformation to occur Mikhail Gorbachev, was well acquainted with the Toffler’s. Whether we are speaking of ‘ecological phases’, or ‘waves’, we are speaking of transformative change.

We are facing the emergence of two major macro collapses. First, and already in process-the global financial collapse and eventual re-organization, and secondly, the recent emergence of what will be large scale changes in the global climate. We have been delaying real transformation for a long time. As Toffler put it, many in the ‘second wave’ even long to go back to the ‘first wave’. The ‘third wave’ is upon us and many institutions are still trying to stop real transformation, as once the ‘first wave’ tried to stop the changes representative of our ‘second wave’. Humans unfortunately, are often loath to change. We are at a point where if we do not chose change fast enough, a monstrous change will chose us, but perhaps not in the way we envisioned. We will be driven to change but will it be the ‘Golden Age’ or will it be the ‘Four Horsemen of the Apocalypse’, or somewhere in-between. Our problems are quite large and require more than just our grid locked governments and agencies to act on our behalf. We must begin to act for ourselves and our children as a collective group in a positive manner, with focus, persistence, and calmness. Eminent scientists such as James Lovelock speak of utter devastation, the loss of billions of lives, and there are many books naming various end of the roads we face whether it be the end of cheap energy, ecological collapse, or other calamity. The ‘third wave’ is upon us, but must be engaged fully and utilized in a manner that allows us to optimize a bad situation.’

The world has seen several major events that have impacted on how it functions as a whole. In many ways change has been coming for some time, but has been held back by the usual dynamics that stabilize ongoing patterns. Dynamic ending drivers include increasing debt management and political issues in Europe, debt ceilings and stimulus limits in the USA, trending inflation in China, currency imbalances, and mounting social unrest in high risk areas such as the Middle East, Pakistan & Afghanistan, North Korea and China, along with increased weather instability impacting food supplies. The world is reaching a tipping point of change in fundamental dynamics, just as new conceptualizations emerge with our new world.

One of the leading drivers of change include the internet increasing the connectivity and organization of our world, which in turn is changing the geographical topology of our world. The debate of whether China or the U.S. will be the dominant player in the next century, is a discussion extrapolating from our history, and not applicable to our future. We will go much further beyond being a unipolar, or bipolar world, to a multipolar, multilinked global world, connected by technology. Other leading drivers include the increasing rate of technological change, globalization, and the switch in generational maturation away from the Baby Boomer to Gen X and Gen Y. We can examine our new world with network theory, hair balls and hive plots.

Hive plots are as shown

There is both an increase in convergence, and of radical transformational adaption in a very complex, rapidly changing world. As Toffler (The Third Wave) points out, the rapid change in technology cannot help but change our social structures and the very essence of how we traditionally see ourselves. The potential for social unrest is great at this time, although as our understanding increases, we may be able to mediate the transition from the collapse of our old world into the new forms that are beginning to emerge. We will need to build upon further, and develop applications of these new theories to allow us to prevent catastrophic collapse of multiple sectors, envision our global economy, and organize ourselves to face new technological challenges such as geo-engineering, DNA manipulation, and ecosystem regrowth.The importance of developing technologies we will require in the near future, is paramount, or as a species we will be left to scramble to survive. We need technologies that can model and predict with much more accuracy, that are conceptually different from what we have now. Globally strategic issues such as critical trends need more monitoring and input, from cross-discipline viewpoints. Critical issues such as climate change and global warming can be broken down into simplified overviews, to transmit ideas and urgency. Very simplified the sun, and our world’s ability to self-regulate or the ‘Gaia’ principle, can be 2 key forces that shift the earth from our current stable state, to a hotter stable state, that the earth has been in the past. As we destroy our environment,we destroy the earth’s ability to regulate our internal atmosphere, and as we add gases that intensify the effect of the sun such as CO2 and methane and others, we create a situation that that introduces more energy into a system that has less and less ability to regulate the effects. The change will not be linear, but trending up and chaotic. We are lighting a fuse, in effect.

Some feel it is too late already, while others feel we have forever, and similarly with geo-engineering some feel this is possible salvation while other’s view it as Pandora’s box to open. Technologies such as putting solar panels in space that are dual purpose-that can stop solar energy from reaching our earth, and harvest some of the energy for our use, to replace environmental destruction and degradation, could be mankind’s redemption. We would also have to try and regrow our environment, and change a huge part of our lifestyle. Could we do it, would we do it? We are only at the beginning.

2012 Arrives

Much has been written about 2012 in the media. Perhaps at some fundamental level we could sense that a large change was to start somewhere near this window of time. We can see the Middle East transform in various degrees, and watch the economic fallout from a collapsing Eurozone, if only on the periphery for now. Russia senses danger and decides to rearm more intensely, as if its leaders realize turbulence is on its way. China, a current stabilizer on the worlds economy, is having difficulties of its own. In Panarchy the transition from various states are described as a series of stages that are proceeded through, as if physics and ecology had melded, and where energy, growth, peak growth, collapse, and restructure occur in a cyclical fashion.

“Panarchy, and by extension this website, is not a normative model; it is a descriptive one. Panarchy is not a utopian vision, or an attempt to describe a rational or just world order. Panarchy may not be good or bad, but it is coherent and consistent. Like the Industrial Era, Panarchy demonstrates certain ways of perceiving and interacting with the world throughout its breadth and depth. Panarchy emerges from the analysis of broad patterns of change in the world, which leads to an understanding the dynamics of systems and holarchies. By applying those understandings across all strata of society, we arrive at a description of where civilization is heading,…”

Panarchy theory also describes “… in K, resilience decreases while the other values increase. Eventually, some internal or external event triggers the W phase, in which potential crashes; finally, in a, resilience and potential grow, connectedness falls, unpredictability peaks, and new system entrants can establish themselves. Holling and Gunderson (2002) stress that the adaptive cycle is a metaphor that can be used to generate specific hypotheses; exact interpretations of resilience, potential, and connectedness are system dependent.”

Holling, one of the great minds in Panarchy had the following to say in an article from http://www.ecologyandsociety.org/vol12/iss1/art24/main.html#WORLD-SYSTEMSANALYSIS11:

“Holling (2004) assesses the possibility of using the ideas that are central to panarchy, developed on a regional scale, to help explain the changes that are being brought about on a global scale by the Internet and by climate, economic, and geopolitical changes. He suggests that the “international world of nations” entered the backloop Ω and α phases of an adaptive cycle with the 1989 fall of the Berlin Wall. However, the subsequent years have seen continued economic growth, technical intensification, growth of transnational corporations, and primacy of the United States; all these date at latest from 1945 and appeared most threatened during the 1970s with the American defeat in Indo-China, the oil shocks, and “stagflation.” Holling identifies the Internet as a backloop phenomenon and regards the “global interconnected communications-driven revolution” as a third major transformation after the agricultural and industrial revolutions. However, this has been a very long revolution, under way, in successive waves, for more than two centuries when we consider the telegraph (first visual, then electric), telephone, radio, and television.

It seems impossible to assign the planetary social-ecological system convincingly to any phase of the adaptive cycle. Connectedness and certain kinds of potential are rising, and resilience is probably falling, suggesting that we are in a K phase. At the same time, continuing rapid innovation suggests an r phase, whereas the growing release of stored energy from fossil fuels, plus soil erosion, extinctions, and deforestation would seem to indicate Ω. In contrast, although they disagree on much else, Berry (2000), Devezas et al. (2005), and the world-systems analyst Goldstein (2006) agree that the Kondratieff cycle should produce rising growth and inflation, and technological diffusion rather than radical innovation, over the next decade or more.

Whether through war, full-scale ecological collapse, or a technological and/or socio-political revolution, it seems certain, as Holling (2004) notes, that radical global change is coming in this century, but this is evident even without the panarchical perspective. We urgently need the scientific tools to understand the range of possibilities open to us. Combining the panarchical perspective’s strengths at the regional scale and its key concept of resilience with the insights of world-systems theory could yield an understanding neither can provide alone.”

June 2012

In examining how current megatrends are unfolding, we can examine the interplay of the financial collapse particularly in Europe and its ripple effects both socially and economically, the increasingly interconnected youth protests across the globe, the increasing recognition of climate change, and the direct effects of same on our global weather system and ecology. Some writers have felt that the destruction of forces that have held us together, is required, while others see us going forward into a period of relative anarchy. The purpose of analyzing megatrends is to give us the option to build a repertoire of responses from which can chose to effectively change the course of our future, but reality often prevents a successful implementation.

We are at a key turning point in our ability to change into a ‘state of organization’ that can help us survive the impending crisis that global climate change will bring in the very near future. We are shifting socially, but without enough awareness of what is required for our collective action. A common reaction in the face of a threat is to retreat to a place of perceived safety and familiarity, while what we may need is the expansion into the new. In some ways our global world is beginning to do both these divergent movements now. The concept of the Eurozone was born out of the not yet forgotten memories of WWII, of hundreds of thousands of French and German soldiers dying on the field of warring nations and of the millions that perished as ‘collateral damage’, that helped to create the idea of a unified Europe, never mind a unified Germany. It was an opportunity of political and economic cooperation and restructuring that was taken. The ‘Fantastic Object’ as George Soros has called it. But now when faced with severe austerity, member states are now looking at retreating into their individual countries, while a few are still standing pat and looking how to reform the current situation. There are no easy ways to understand and predict the dynamics, and we need to develop news ways to understand our global forces in play. Potential exists in new fields such as network theory and analytics applied to our ever growing collection of social data.

Thomas Homer-Dixon speaks about complexity, and the need to develop new ways of viewing and understanding our world.

August 2012 Update

The continuation of the Arab revolution has begun its second wave of influence, and the reassertion of power by previously powerless majorities such as the Sunni Muslim community, has expanded into the realignment of the Syrian-Iran axis, as well as changing  geographical demarcations with further regional claims by various subgroups. This power shift is likely to have effects on other middle eastern countries such as Bahrain, Yemen, Saudi Arabia, and other African states such as the Sudan. The subtle and not so subtle involvement of major superpowers in this transition, is seen in the relevant politics of China, Russia, and the US, as well as a possible increase in antagonistic behaviours towards Israel in the context of this shift of axis. Implications of unrest in areas so closely tied to the production of oil energy, is likely to ripple into industrial and technical production, and economic patterns.

Sept 2012 Update:

As Syria continues to explode in conflict, and the wholesale slaughter of citizens unleashes a huge refugee wave, gas is thrown onto a volatile middle east situation by a US resident claiming to be Jewish (which is not the case) who distributes an anti-Muslim video, unleashing a fatal American embassy attack on Sept 11th in Libya, and a tirade of anti-Americanism across the Arab world. The Middle East seems poised for war, with tensions between Israel, Iran, Syria, and the West reaching a tipping point. Oil distribution patterns are likely to be greatly affected.The timing coincides with the US electoral cycle. The US economic response has been swift, and a held back QE3 is unleashed into a crisis situation.

Europe and the Eurozone teeters on the brink of financial and political realignment, as Greece struggles with its failure, and the ripples unleash the cascade of financial inter-dependence into the political arena.

In response to the social and real effects of political austerity measures, Europe has begun to swing to the left primarily in it’s political spectrum. With both France and the smaller but hard hit Greece, votes for leftist political parties were enough in France to overthrow President Sarkozy, while in Greece the coalition of the radical left, the ‘Syriza‘ party charged past the scandal tainted Socialist Pasok party, and refused to work with the New Democrats to form a government for Greece, leaving the leadership rudderless and rather precarious.

But the larger question and trend to watch is whether Germany turns left as well, changing its official stance on austerity. Also, if Eurozone Austerity policies are reversed and replaced with growth policies, across France and Germany, will this happen fast enough and be enough to prevent the disintegration of the Eurozone. Key to whether this destructive dynamic can be stabilized is whether countries such as Greece, and other candidate countries, and eastern periphery countries, can be accommodated within the current, or a restructured Eurozone.

There are also larger Eurozone social issues which have to be addressed within the context of improved economics. The high youth employment in various countries has to be targeted, along with coordinated immigration and integration programs to reduce social unrest, and promote social cohesion within the rich diversity of Europe. The extreme right wing parties have been rewarded by playing the nationalistic and xenophobic cards, and represent a clear and present danger to social stability and the Eurozone dream. More planning needs to be done to revive all options of restructuring the Eurozone terms to match the current economic reality, while planning for future growth and rebalancing.

In China a rising revolution re-emerges corresponding with a sputtering economy that has been fuelled by infighting amongst oligarchs and central committee members, a rising exodus of Chinese capital leaving the country, and increasing numbers of unsold production accumulating. The spark for revolution may have been sufficiently lit, with this polarization point, from earlier failures to ignite a larger scale protest. If this occurs, the ramifications of this instability will impact the global economic and political landscape in ways unexpected.

Oct 2012 Update:

The situation in Iran has become fluid, with the failure of their currency, the rial. The Iranian government has begun a campaign of scapegoating causes of these continued economic woes, and civilian protests have emerged despite the authoritarian presence. Beirut has now seen the violence which plagues its northern regions in the country’s capital, with the explosion of a car bomb in the heavily commercial and Christian area of town. The potential for a regional civil war encompassing Iran, Syria and Lebanon increases in risk.

The dynamic shift caused by this potentiality is not fully recognized by the Western world as yet. As discussed in another post about the Global Pension Crisis ( http://wp.me/p1zpYL-k ) a fundamental re-balancing of age demographics is happening now. With China and Iran, two major centrally run countries being hit by the large youth demographic coming of age, a major transition has begun. Meanwhile in the western world we have hit the retirement demographic and our economies have stalled. The world is changing in ways while perhaps not expected, certainly could be foreseen.

Related articles

• James Alexander; The Waves of Creative Destruction and our current economic trends (haroonhaider.com)
• Panarchy (intentionalchange.wordpress.com)
• Is Future Shock Happening Right Now? (richardyatesrealestate.wordpress.com)
• Alvin Toffler’s Trilogy Revisited (socyberty.com)
• The Snowflake Effect the Third Industrial Revolution (waynehodgins.typepad.com)
• Powershift: Alvin Toffler on the Age of Post-Fact Knowledge and the Super-Symbolic Economy (1990) (brainpickings.org)
• Evgeny Morozov: The Naked And The TED | The New Republic (tnr.com)
• Climate Change Opinion Shifts With The Weather (huffingtonpost.com)
• Beyond future shock (dw2blog.com)
• Cycles of a Nation Called America by Marilyn Barnewall (globalnewsandviews.wordpress.com)

Tunisia Twitters Trends Issue – Social Media and the Arab Revolution

Tunisia Twitters Trends Issue – Social Media and the Arab Revolution

MaryAnn Moore Jan 27th 2011

Every so often the world shudders with revolutionary spasms. It happened with the emergence of the American, French, and Russian Revolutions at the turn of the centuries past. Major social revolutions frequently occur after a major social change, such as the wave of industrialization that covered the world and pulled behind it the various revolutions that reflected the new social organizations, intellectual thought, and changed expectations. In America, the chains of colonialism were thrown off and the quest for personal liberty still remains at the core of the American psyche. In France, the people’s egalitarian principles joined a fraternal quest for liberty, and this framework still exists today in their social democracy. In Russia, the Czar who ruled with an iron fist was deposed, what he had was given to the masses, and a new society based upon the Marxist principles became the grand experiment of Communism. It was a failed experiment that imploded upon itself ironically, as a drive for personal freedom, ownership, and democracy led to other revolutions and the collapse of the Soviet communist style of government. Revolutions are not always a success story, and many are killed in the process.

As technology gains a foothold in the Arab and African world, the information age may be bringing transformation to societies locked repressively in a time that is closer to the beginnings of the industrial age. YouTube, Facebook, and Twitter have become the tools of the oppressed to communicate new ideas and new social organizations. The reality of their world being brought into their homes relatively uncensored, and socially shared. Triggers such as the Wikkileaks disclosures, at times confirming their their thoughts, and the expression of their painful angst as shown in acts of self immolation, have lit a fuse in these social tinderboxes. However, one should be wary of regime change in Africa, which has a long history of governments failing, and nothing really changing in the end. The ‘Coup Trap’ as it is known. Researchers Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler studied this problem of the re-occurring coup, and rebellions. What they found was that in all coups there are commonalities, and at the core the issue was primarily economic, rather than political or social. The two variables that played major roles with rebellions being successful were geographic dispersion (giving the rebels somewhere to hide) and social fragmentation (the more fragmented a society is, the less likely the rebellion). But the role technology can play in empowering the masses to affect a change process and to drive the outcome to a different, better place, will be seen.

Using methods to remain undetected on the internet, rebels may have a different place to hide and communicate, while uncoordinated calls for rebellion on various media platforms may lead to a splintering of the group. Existing powers that be may use the same technology to track rebel leaders or movements, or spread misinformation. Researcher Simon.R.B.Berdal is noted on Wikipedia to explain the role of the internet as follows…

“As the globally evolving Internet provides ever new access points to virtual discourse forums, it also promotes new civic relations and associations within which communicative power may flow and accumulate. Thus, traditionally…national-embedded peripheries get entangled into greater international peripheries, with stronger combined powers. The internet consequently, changes the topology of the ‘centre-periphery model, by stimulating conventional peripheries to interlink into ‘super-periphery’ structures, which enclose and ‘besiege’ several centers at once.”

We may be seeing the siege beginning from the periphery, in the Arab world. Arab commentators are starting to call this unrest as the Jasmine Revolution, the pink revolution, and other names, which indicate a perception of the high level of engagement within the population, to driving a change process in these countries. Salman Shaikh from CNN feels we are witnessing today, an Arab people‘s revolution.

Part 1 Egypt ‘The Outbreak’

As the revolution spreads from Tunisia to Egypt, President Mubarak finally spoke to his country stating that his government’s cabinet would be replaced, but the general population remains out on the street wanting him to resign. It may come down to a show down between the army deployed to replace the beaten back police force, and the will of the people to see Mubarak gone. As yet, the people have taken the approach to co-opting the army, approaching them as friends. The rebellion has been driven by the youth in tandem with other segments of society, unlike the ‘Muslim Brotherhood’ which has been in the past the main opponent to President Mubarak. Should this group decide to join the rebellion at a crticial moment, there will likely be enough momentum to topple the government. Internet and cell phones were blocked in advance of the massive rally taking place in Cairo. Mohammed ElBaradei who is seen by many as a possible interim leader, called for President Mubarak to ‘leave today and save the country’. The military has apparently told protestors that they will not stand in their way, opening the door to a change in government.

Demonstrations are also happening in Jordan, Yemen, and Morocco. Algeria is also stepping up their demands for an end to the multi-year history of living under emergency rule. Reuters reported that on Thursday a general Blackberry messenger went out calling for protests in Jeddah, an area badly damaged by floods, in a rare show of dissent. In the Sudan there was a student protest at the University of Kartoum, which was eventually shut down by police. In Jordan, King Abdulla II is trying to pre-empt further protests by firing his cabinet and replacing the P.M. who is seen as a moderate. The King was also discussing what sounded like democratic reforms, although specifics were not tabled.

The western world has been trying to walk a tightrope between encouraging democratic reforms and supporting a transition to an Arab democratic society, and fearing the change may become radicalized, violent, and revert back to an authoritarian structure of leadership whose agenda may not be peaceful. British Foreign Secretary William Hague requested a democratic ‘transformation’, while the American government is delicately trying to support ‘the people’ as opposed to the current regime style, or the radicals who may be looking for an opportunity to overtake the process in motion. China meanwhile, is trying to block all news from these events from entering their country.

Part 2 Egypt ‘The Battle’ Feb 2011

After the initial skirmishes, the real battle will take place as President Mubarak has shown no signs of wanting to step down, and most recently has begun to stop the press from reporting what is happening. This is usually a prelude to an autocratic government’s crackdown on a rebellion. The actions of the military will likely determine the outcome of this revolution. Foreign citizens living in Egypt are scrambling to arrange for a flight out, while countries are trying to coordinate evacuations. Reports from those who have left state that airport security are demanding payment to be let on board flights, and planes are being charged extra ‘taxes’ for departure.

As President Mubarak realizes he is left alone to fight this battle in the twilight of his years, and while reportedly in poor health, the potential for bloodshed grows. He has replaced the cabinet with his trusted friends and is suspicious of the motives of this uprising. A radio report from a ‘friend’ stated he did not feel that Mubarak was planning on stepping down. The people sense what is about to happen, and many have stated that they are prepared to die for their cause. Some are starting to prepare for Mubarak’s replacement, as intellectuals are gathering to discuss the people who could be chosen for an interim government. Mohammed ElBaradei continues to be the most likely choice for the people in a new government. The ‘million man march’ on the Presidential Palace has become a giant ‘tent-in’. So called ‘pro-stability’ protestors aka ‘pro-Mubarak’ backers are beginning to attack those camped out in Tahrir, with numerous Molotov cocktails being thrown, beatings happening, and gunfire being heard. The Associated Press reported that the German Foreign Minister Guide Westerwelle felt the assault on protestors ‘raised the question of whether political leaders of Egypt understand the need for rapid democratic reform.’ The answer to which, would appear to be no. One could speculate that this violence against peaceful protestors was not only designed to intimidate them, but also designed to bring out a violent backlash, which could then be used to legitimize the use of force. The west at some point, will have to decide how far they will go in supporting democracy in Egypt, and what constitutes interference in the affairs of another country. Google, Facebook, and Twitter are protesting the cut off in technology and communications Egyptians are facing because of political reasons, in a rare corporate commentary. Whether other forums such as the UN can be used remains to be seen. Meanwhile, Egyptians wait and watch. The military looks more and more to be the key player in the outcome. At some point there will be more forceful action towards democracy, when the people become tired of the games and intimidation. What the military does will decide the victor.

Part 3 Egypt ‘Operation Valkyrie’  Feb 2011

It is important to understand the role the military has played in Egypt through the years. From Nassar, to Sadat, to Mubarak, the military has provided the leadership for Egypt and views itself as Egypt’s protector. It has however, become corrupt especially at the upper echelon, and feels no issues with torturing its opponents. Meanwhile, the protests continue at Tahrir Square. Other world leaders are joining in on the fray, including another aging dictator, Fidel Castro, who feels Mubarak ‘is done for’. As economic conditions worsen in Egypt with food and fuel shortages, there is limited time to broker a peaceful settlement to the stand-off, which is what the West appears to be doing. The ‘Wise Elders’ of Egypt in the meantime have drafted their own statement about a transitory government and have agreed to enter into a dialogue with the newly appointed Vice-President Omar Suleiman. The military thus far is keeping quiet, and Mubarak believes that a faction of the military is playing a role in plotting his ouster. At issue, is the succession of Mubarak’s son who is disliked by the military, and did not complete his military service. The players who appear to be game for the Presidential position include: Mohammed ElBaradei, Mubarak’s sons Gamal and Alaa, Omar Suleiman V.P. and the former chief of Intelligence, and Field Marshall Mohammed Tanawi Soliman have been mentioned, and no doubt there are others in the background. Rumors of President Mubarak being terminally ill with cancer have been around since 2010, with stories of him seeking treatment in Europe. Recent comments have him diagnosed with pancreatic cancer. Succession as an issue has obviously been around for a few years with Mubarak pushing through a new law in the Egyptian assembly, that the speaker of the assembly would be President for 60 days, if anything happened to the President. It also required anyone standing for election to be the in leadership of a political party for at least one year, a situation which had favoured his son Gamal. The military has no doubt been discussing how this process of succession may take place, both formally and informally. The citizens are planning their own approach to democracy, with the ‘National Coalition for Change’ – comprised of the Wise Elders, Muslim Brotherhood, and other parties, and fronted by ElBaradei, meeting with the regime to build a new electoral process.

Israel and others are distrustful of this change, worried that other elements may come into play that may scuttle the peace agreement that exists between Israel and Egypt. The US has softened its stance towards the immediate removal of Mubarak, now that his sons and friends have been removed from the succession process. The country is still in chaos, with a pipeline being blown up with the encouragement of Islamist extremists, and continuing economic dysfunction, the reverberations of which are still being felt in adjacent countries. The situation is far from resolved. Egypt was able to mobilize its citizens, especially the youth with technology, along with more traditional ‘social networking’ in the Mosques and marketplaces, as it was ‘ready for revolution.’ High risk zones for further unrest will be the oppressed, poor people such as that found in Iran, where the failed 2009 Green Revolution may be re-ignited by the success of the Egyptian and Tunisian people. Triggers are often economic – high food prices and shortages, natural disasters, and the presence of sufficient leadership is also required. As Secretary of State Hillary Clinton has stated, ‘the conditions exist for a perfect storm’.

On Feb 10th the Egyptian army met without Mubarak, and announced that Mubarak would be stepping down and handing his powers over to the V.P. Omar Suleiman. However, Mubarak went on national television to state that he was not stepping down, but would hand over some powers to the V.P. On Feb 11th the army took control of the government, and made a formal announcement that President Mubarak had stepped down. Egypt had made history in changing a regime that had been there for most of their lives. Mubarak is like some tragic King Lear who had outlived his time. Like a proud pharaoh, Mubarak is planning to die in Egypt, one way or the other. Since he was deposed he has disappeared from view. There have been rumours of his falling into a coma, of going to Germany, and little official commentary since then. The army however is still in charge, and some protestors have not gone home, being unsatisfied with the democracy that they have not seen, as yet. Mubarak’s net worth has been estimated in the billions, with claims that he is the world’s richest man. His money is the process of being tracked down and frozen.

Part 4 Egypt ‘The Contagion’ Feb 19^th 2011

Other countries in the region have continued to clamour for democracy, as unrest spreads throughout the region. Of particular note Iran’s reactions to increasing internal unrest have been harsh crackdowns, and everyone else is looking at Iranian ships allowed through the Suez canal by Egypt, with the suspicion that Iran may be upping the ante, using the fomenting unrest to escalate a war against Israel. Islamic extremists in Iran and other regions have re-labelled the Egyptian unrest as being driven by Islamic forces, and one could question the motives in play currently, although a certain segment of the uprising is likely encouraged by the clerics in the region.

The other area that is experiencing unrest against another dictator of 40 odd years-Libya, has seen the mass execution of its unarmed citizens by what are called externally sourced mercenaries. Forces loyal to Muammar Ghaddhafi have gone so far as to shoot mourners at funerals for ‘Martyrs of the Revolution’. Foreign journalists are finding it difficult to report, as entry visa’s are denied. News from the area is coming by way of eye witness reporting on YouTube, Twitter, and Facebook, and what staff AlJazerra has local for reporting. Even the Telegraph/UK has gone to use independent video, as their own reporters are not present.

The situation in Libya worsens with the military fracturing and Ghaddhafi ordering air strikes against his own military installations and protesters while importing more external mercenaries. The rebellion seems to be moving westward across the country, as the cities of Benghazi, Bayda, and Darnah, are broadcasting revolutionary messages, and some members of the air force have defected in Malta rather than attack their own people. There are contradictory reports of air strikes in Tripoli, with essentially the government of Ghaddhafi denying citizens claims that Tripoli was attacked. There are calls by the revolutionary army to head towards Tripoli, to remove Ghaddhafi from power. Nearby cities on the outskirts of the capital are also coming under fire, as the fighting starts to concentrate in and around Tripoli. The major battle should be over in the near future, but Ghaddhafi may retreat to a fortified location, such as a bunker facility.

There is a wholesale exodus of refugees from Libya and Tunisia across the Mediterranean into Europe, and the security force protecting the E.U. border- ‘Frontex’ is asking for more resources to deal with the overwhelming numbers arriving. Europe may be faced with it’s first mass wave of refugees since the second world war, as a result of the ongoing unrest in Africa and the Middle East. Turks, Egyptians, and other foreigners in Libya are trying to flee where possible, but otherwise are trapped by the uprising and a lack of means of evacuations. Egypt is hinting of bringing it’s planes and support personnel into the country, to assist Egyptians trapped there.

In examining where Ghaddhafi may have retreated to, the rumour on the street is that he may have went to his desert home of Sabha, Libya. In 2004 the IAEA report stated this was the base of his nuclear weapons program, and nearby Serba Oasis was the test site of OTRAG rockets. It was where he made his ‘dawn of the masses’ speech, and may add an extremely dangerous element into his arsenal which he may wield against protesters. There are reports he has begun shelling Tripoli from ships. It would appear to be the actions of a desperate man, who was never that stable to begin with. His actions, weapons, and money, make this a very dangerous situation for his people who have deserted him, and neighbouring countries.

Part 5 Egypt  ‘A Fire Burns’ – Multiple Regional Crisis  Feb 23rd

The Arab Revolution has become on fire in several locations, and has begun to spread along the periphery. The other factor driving the quick spread of revolutionary fever, aside from technology, is the youth demographic of the Middle East/North Africa region which peaks around 2035 at 100 million, and about 25-45% of it is currently unemployed. The centre of it all- Saudia Arabia, has become nervous and now King Abdullah has returned home after a three month absence and announced aid for unemployed youth to begin. The youth have waiting lists of around 18 years to get state housing which delays issues such as marriage and developmental milestones. Most recently one of the Saudi Prince’s has a video that has was placed on YouTube as endorsing  Ghaddhafi, despite the Clerics from Saudi Arabia all condemning Ghaddhafi. It has been said that ‘all roads lead to Mecca’, and it appears the Saudi’s, with trouble in nearby Bahrain and Yemen, are looking down those roads for what is slowly approaching their kingdom. Succession, like in Egypt, has been in question for a time. King Abdulla has his successor named, but there are conflicts in opinion over who should be next, and what happens after, is anyone’s guess. Both the King, and his named successor are elderly. The King has shown progressive leadership as compared to his predecessors, but whether this can hold the tide approaching, is anyone’s guess. The fire will take hold and burn to the center, how much transformation will ensue will be a reflection of the people’s determination.

The battle continues in Libya, with fierce fighting in and around Tripoli as the last vanguard of loyal army members and hired mercenaries fight anti-government forces. Some sea vessels of the Libyan navy have defected, and the anti-government forces are picking up more and more, as tribes and deserted army officers travel to the battlegrounds to join up in the fight. Once the battle around Tripoli is decided, the battle will likely move southernly, or towards  Ghaddhafi’s location. It will become evident at that point, whether Ghaddhafi has further weapons he will launch to prevent an approaching front from reaching his base, or whether he will have created some sort of nuclear material bomb, a ‘dirty bomb’ available in some grand defense, or chemical weapons against those who would oppose him. His only international support coming from Malta and Italy’s Burlusconi, who were against applying sanctions on Libya. Foreign nationals continue to try and get out of the country, as reports of major bloodshed and battles are emerging.

Some have said that Libya is but a small country, of no great geo-political importance, but it’s leader has managed to stay in power for over 40 years, while contributing to, or directly ordering terrorist attacks on innocent civilians, and as such, has distinguished himself as a menace to society at large, to the point where President Ronald Reagan called him a ‘mad dog’. The fact he paid retributions for the lives he took, does not replace those lives, and was strictly an economic move on his part to get sanctions lifted, and not an act of contrition. With age, he has learnt to be lower key and how to pretend to play the game. He is all about the money and power, and has evolved to a megalomaniac. His past methods of manipulating the masses, some learnt from Mubarak as a young man, are what we see today. His claims in the past, of being attacked by outside forces while it was him all along, may have successfully confused a populace with little but state media coverage, but in today’s age of internet and wireless communication, the methods fall ridiculously flat. He is sitting back letting his opponents play out their hand, while he organizes staged propaganda shows. He warns them to stop the protests, then comes with helicopter gunships and massacres people. He has gone out to his military stores in the desert and revised plans for counter-attack, and returned to Tripoli with further mercenary back-up. He has offered the general populace about $400 per family along with added state benefits, in trying to regain control of the situation, now that sanctions are on the way. While he has money he will be a formidable foe, and freezing his assets is likely to bring about an angry response, although alternative accounts were already set up by his son for redirecting money flows. Ghaddhafi should not be trifled with. He has always been a dangerous man, and the biggest mistake would be to under-estimate him, or try to appease him. It behooves us in retrospect to understand why we have found it easy to forget the actions of this man, and why we have bought his oil over so many years, and taken his money, lest we be a quiet accomplice in his actions.

Part 6 Egypt ‘Towards a New Arabian Future’ Feb 27^th

As we witness the wholesale change of mentality, the Arab world now is faced with the ‘now what’ of determining the direction of their collective societies. It will be interesting to see if a higher degree of cohesion and similarity results between countries, of whether the re-creation of an old idea of ‘Pan-Arabia’ emerges, with commonalities being driven by a shared culture within the internet affecting local values, in as much as it helped to drive a revolution through the Arab world in varying degrees. Intellectuals from places such as Saudi Arabia to Egypt, and youth who have seen the western, developed world and have ‘e-friends’ across the globe, have in their mind a vision for their future. It is the youth generation, soon to be a 100 million strong that will propel the Arab world into the future. As this revolution continues to unfold, their vision needs to coalesce into an actionable plan, or they will lose the moment for seizing a true opportunity for change. For when the ‘hard’ revolution is over and governments are toppled, leaders must step up and out from where there had been none. Constitutions must be reformed or created, and public institutions made to reflect their new view on life. The revolution is far from over, in many ways it has yet to really begin. What has been different for us in the West, is that we have been able to watch live, uncensored footage shot by camera phones on YouTube, posted messages of support on Facebook, and contributed to Twitter conversations with ‘e-friends’ in the middle of Libya. We have become of the part of their revolution with our technological support, and with our offers of friendship to a world that few of us have ever been to. Perhaps that has been the greatest gift that the internet has given to us all.

‘Understanding the Inevitable Conclusion’ – Using Resilience Theory to Examine Social Innovation and ‘Surmountable Chasms’   March 2011

While the Arabian Revolution continues to progress, we can move past watching the actual events and develop an understanding of the theory that can be used to frame the events in more detail, and be used more importantly in helping others, the youth in particular, guide their futures. This revolution has only begun, and while it may stop and start in various phases, the youth demographic alone will drive it along to the eventual conclusion. The Arabian future has become of age, and has begun to take their rightful place, long denied, in the established order of things. We have begun to see that Social Networks have begun to be used in ways that can create fundamental change, but our understanding of these effects is only partially known and only quite recently researched in the context of resilience and innovation. The role of ‘Institutional Entrepreneurs’ in the network system, that have the ability to recognize patterns that cause rigidity traps, to create informal groups and missions, functioning as ‘nodes’, rather than hubs, within the system. ‘Knowledge brokers’ with specialized knowledge can frame the information to make it comprehensible and relevant for others, especially decision-makers. ‘Network Rechargers’ are visionaries, who give form and direction to the network and its mission. Network theory helps to explain the types of relationships needed for social innovation to spread across boundaries. Research has shown that:

‘Networks have become the intellectual centrepiece for our era. If the contest between markets and state hierarchies was an organizing feature of the 1980’s, network has emerged as the dominant social and economic metaphor for subsequent decades’ 1.

Much like the transformative change that took place and revolutionized the former Soviet Union, the change happening in the Arab world has similar features, but with the advantage of the unifying and co-ordinating aspect of the internet and social networking sites. While the former revolution that led to the destruction of the Soviet style of government, it was often tumultuous in the aftermath, with state assets often being sold off at fire sale prices to political cronies, and a wholesale lack of any unifying features aside from a couple leaders that emerged periodically from what could be called an aimless collapse into the unknown. The Arab revolution however has the ability to try to collectively shape their future using the internet/social media to find a more positive outcome of this revolution. Research has shown that the more boundaries and scales innovation crosses, the more likely the innovation will result in transformative change. At some tipping point in momentum, and entire region will be a vastly different place in the future. The shaping of this process occurs now. How we support and facilitate the process, how determined the Arab population is in achieving its ideals, how brutal the governments of this rigid system are in trying to suppress this inevitable change, will affect the process and the final outcome. This revolution will not only transform the Arab world, but others to come in the future. Rigid organizations, political or otherwise, will not be able to survive the onslaught of this social change, ‘the power shift’, brought about by the internet, and other macro factors such as climate change, technological shifts, and global economic evolution. The era of ‘Rapid Transformation’ has begun.

‘Global Impact’ March 2011

The Arabian Revolution has also had a social impact right across the world. In nearby Iran, the Persian youth culture is trying desperately to find ways of overcoming the extreme repression that has smothered the 2009 Green Revolution, and kept in check recent efforts to find freedom. In China the Jasmine Strolls, as the gatherings are called, are making some in government nervous. Their concern is that this movement may intensify, if their economy becomes more troubled, which may occur, as current events in the world throw a monkey wrench into the global economic recovery, with increasing volatility in various markets.  Even in India, youth are challenging the old beliefs in the caste system, with online movements beginning. Our social world with social technology now unleashed and used effectively, has become a place of different expectations. The youth in particular, will play a critical role in global social transformation, and those aged, ancient, authoritative leaders will be swept away by the third wave that is coming to their world.

‘Shaping the Revolution’ March 23 2011

The West and the UN have decided to play an interventionist role with Libya, after watching the slaughter of peaceful and armed protestors; and of bodies burned, buried alive, or buried dead, so little evidence would be found. Ghadhaffi has made himself visible for all to see, what was the illusion he had held out, so dearly, of a ‘reformed terrorist’. If Libya is able to turn its momentum towards a democratic process, then perhaps from the northern edge of Africa, social change has a chance to spread towards other areas in Africa, with time. If the Arab world is able to embrace and shape democratic change, rather than live in fear of it, authoritarian countries like Iran, would be under their challenge, rather than the other way around. Iran often plays sectarian conflict towards each other, in order to be the victor, if sectarian conflict was engaged in a democratic process, an authoritarian Iran would be the loser. The African, Arabian, and Persian youth of tomorrow, and today, have much of their struggle yet before them.

Libya has been able to regain some area with the help of the no fly zone, being in place. They have begun to form a transitional government and have named a transitional Prime Minister. They have formed a Transitional National Assembly and made their a declaration of their transitional government status and intent to hold free elections. Ghadhaffi, is thought to have gone into hiding into one of his many bunkers again. His thoughts will likely review his options for accessing more funds, securing further mercenaries, and reviewing how to access further weaponry he likely has cached. It will be unlikely that he will depart, given he has spent most of his life in his current role, and believes in nothing else. The battle for Libya is far from over, and the longer it progresses, the more Ghadhaffi will hope for political winds to change in his favour, although this is unlikely to happen. Warnings are posted on Twitter of ‘sleeper cells’ in cities such as Mistrata, and these are likely recently planted Ghadhaffi spies, there to provide needed intelligence, to plan his counterattacks.

Syria and Jordan are beginning to experience more unrest. Meanwhile, Yemen is looking more like Egypt with every passing day. The military is starting to support the revolution, and even bureaucrats are jumping off of the government and into the revolution. Bahrain and Saudi Arabia remain fixed against the wave on their doorstep. Iran is engaged in escalating regional conflicts to their benefit. Israel is experiencing increasing attacks, as others are trying to create an attack by Israel, at the same time the West has entered militarily into the region. With a further escalation in violence with Saudi Arabia/Bahrain on Friday prayer protests, Iran can easily transform this scenario into a unifying rally call for Arabs not interested in change, into a call supporting the extremist version of events, of change being a function of American led interests. The west, in particular America, must be very careful in how appearances can easily be transformed by Iran, and friends.

‘A Constitutional Change Forward’ March 28 2011

In Egypt, there has emerged a report, that there are thoughts of drafting a new constitution versus changing the existing constitution, leading to a possible delay in presidential elections. In Syria, there are promises of amending article 8 of the first chapter of the constitution which gives the ruling Baath party, the designation as the leading party in the country, and changing the law to make it illegal to imprison journalists. It is significant that some of the countries that have felt change are speaking of redrafting their laws and basic structure, to reflect a new reality that has emerged.

More Hands Shaping the Revolution March 31 2011

There have been more players entering the field in playing a role in shaping the revolution. Turkey, in particular has emerged as a mediator for various situations, especially regarding Libya and Syria. The interim government in Egypt is changing the alignment of its relationship, before elections are held, and it remains to be seen whether this is prognostic of further trouble to arise out of an incomplete transition to democracy. Iran has been found trying to ship arms to Syria, by Turkey, and in Kuwait a group of Iranian diplomats was sent packing after allegations of spying were made.

Meanwhile in Libya, the supposed defection of Foreign Minister Moussa Koussa should be taken with a grain of salt. Offers of ‘intelligence’ should be viewed with caution, as it is unlikely his easy departure was allowed without knowledge of Ghadaffi, who has seized upon the political turmoil caused by western intervention in Libya, to try to change the tide of political winds against him. The ‘rebels are criminals’ as a statement from the foreign minister, is quite ironic given the history of his involvement in terrorist bombings. The rebels meanwhile are having difficulty fighting especially while under fire, and their actions only show how unlike hardened criminals they are. The situation in Libya will come to a conclusion politically, shortly, and sadly most seem unconcerned about the violent oppression of a people, being concerned more about being drawn into some Iraq like situation, which this is not. If the west and the U.N. let Gadhaffi to stay in power, they will rue the day they made that choice.

‘The Arab Spring continued’ June 2011

The ‘Arab Spring’ as it is known now, continues. Much of North Africa remains in turmoil, awaiting the departure of Libya’s Ghadhaffi. Meanwhile in Egypt, the revolutionary forces are suspiciously viewing the results of their initial efforts, and trying to gain some sense of justice with Mubarack, despite his poor health – a return of cancer has been confirmed. Tunisia, has shown the most spirit in both executing it’s revolution and going after resources formerly owned by their deposed leader. The center of it all- Saudi Arabia has been gazing at female drivers for the first time, as various cultural feminists, are requesting the right to drive in a society where no women are allowed to vote, and votes are held rarely. In Yemen President Saleh was the victim of an assassination attempt, and was treated at a Saudi Arabia hospital, and is expected to return. In Syria, Bashar has resorted to firing on protesters, and killing children to intimidate his population into submission.

‘The Youth of the World Emerge’ July 2011

The Arab revolution will continue into the Arab Fall, which is likely to be a major event with increasing conflicts building from the summertime and coming into full play. Alignments in the middle east are beginning to shift, both from the economic and political spheres, and the social revolutions being held down for now by repressive regimes attempting to continue their hold on power. The role of religion in power and the state’s government is only starting to shift, as the youth segment increasingly connect to the outside world through social media, and realize the complex societies that exist outside of their doorstep. They want in many cases the change we already have, such as the separation of state and religion to allow a more pluralistic society to exist. Wild cards such as weather induced food shortages, energy costs, extremists making a run for power in a dynamic situation, and failing regimes pulling out all the stops to stay in power, are likely to make a fully loaded situation explode while September approaches.

‘The Battle Heats’ August 2011

Syria’s Assad continues to fire upon protestors drawing international condemnation from the west, and supportive apathy from countries such as Russia who are against sanctions being applied. Libyian rebels, assisted by NATO, appears to have affected a regime change on the low profile Ghadaffi. His several sons/grandsons have either been killed or captured, with only a few remaining in the battle. Ghadaffi bears watching for a last grandstand exit, as a man who has ruled the country in brutality for so long, and experienced such family loss in these battles, and is so familiar with killing.

‘ A Year of Change’ Dec 2011

Ghaddafi is killed by rebels, in what appears to be gun battle that was a rather one sided finale. Libya now faces the daunting task of rebuilding their economy and effecting a transition to a more democratic style of governance. The tension in the middle east has heated up, with Iran and Syria along with sympathizers becoming increasingly hostile in their defense of their positions of power, as larger waves of discontent emerge and the situation becomes much more fluid in the region. The change overs in Tunisia and Libya has encouraged not only the middle east, but rippled effects across the world globally for those who have used the success and verdict of change, to push harder at home for their local version of the same.

Jan 2012  Arab Spring 2.0 

The Middle East  continues in revolutionary ferment. Egyptian crowds fight with the police, and the ‘Girl in the Blue Bra’ YouTube video goes viral in social media, and becomes another defining moment of the Egyptian revolution as women come out in force to protest both the treatment of women, and the failure of the revolution to bring into effect the democratic changes sought. Opposition forces begin to multiply and organize, as the army and police begin a larger crackdown on protesting forces. After forcing a regime change, the people want the real change they were hoping for, and as long as the economy continues to fail to improve, the seeds of discontent remain, and are growing daily. In response, those trying to keep the reins of power have embarked on a campaign of undermining support for full democracy in Egypt, including suddenly arresting American NGO officials in efforts to remove any sentiment towards what is perceived as a negative American presence. The civil war in Syria spills over into Lebanon, as rebels set up base camps in the safe haven it offers. With the army splintering, Homs, a heavily Sunni town and the home of their military academy, and strategic for oil and other reasons, is being heavily shelled. With the Arab world was sending in observers, the Ba’ath party Syrian government could easily be goaded into an aggressive manoeuver into Lebanon. Syria has also begun to talk about constitutional reform, likely as a measure for decreasing the pressure it must be feeling, or as a stalling technique. Iran which is mainly Shiite, remains under global pressure as an Oil embargo is placed to deter it from its nuclear ambitions. Iran in turn has begun to ratchet up tensions by saber rattling with its nuclear intentions, as if it welcomes provocating results and counter-plays the reactions. Hamas and Hezbollah begin to polarize into Sunni and Shiite camps, respectively. Religious sectarian violence becomes pronounced as the tensions heat up, and the 2012 withdrawal of western forces counts down. Much of the dynamics currently in play in the Middle East is a function of religion, with the Muslim majority of Sunni’s playing a key role in reshaping the current regional dynamics. Social media can play a role in helping to moderate the increasing religious tensions, but it can just as easily amplify religious intolerance, as people view the Koran being burned, or see other Sunnis bombed by the Syrian government.

‘Update Syria’ August 2012

Social media continues to be the focus of communication techniques for both inspiring and repressing revolution in the Arab world. The situation in Syria has deteriorated, and revolutionary fever has continued to spread into countries inspired by the actions of those in countries that are similar in geography and politics. Facebook is shown to be the dominant social media internet engine for the middle eastern region.

‘The Quiet Noise before the Storm’ Nov 2012

The battle for control of the Arab Revolution begins, with Israel decimating Hamas which has been performing chaotic attacks on their flank. Israel must determine and define it’s relationship with Egypt before it can possibly look towards Iran and the brewing mix of Shite, Sunni, and Al-Quaeda in Syria and the surrounding region. Meanwhile Iran has begun its preparations as well, trying to foment  revolution in Bahrain hoping to destabilize Saudi Arabia.

Related articles

• The Arab Spring- Caused by Social Media? (hannahmarketing.wordpress.com)
• New study quantifies use of social media in Arab Spring (eurekalert.org)
• The Kasbah Occupations in Tunisia – Revolutionizing Spatial Politics: Reclaim, Redefine, Transform (letsingerwrites.com)
• Revolution in Tunisia and the African Media (theroot.com)
• Social media, tipping points and revolutions (gigaom.com)
• Yousri Marzouki: Revolutionizing Revolutions: Virtual Collective Consciousness and the Arab Spring (huffingtonpost.com)
• The Battle for the Arab Spring: Revolution, Counter-Revolution and the Making of a New Era (Feature) (popmatters.com)
• In the Arab World, Social Media Has Fast Developed into a Medium for the Masses (knowledge.wharton.upenn.edu)
• [from gardnerc] Eric Schmidt on Technology vs. Dictatorship – J.J. Gould – The Atlantic (theatlantic.com)
• Elias Khoury on Looking at the Arab Spring Through the Eyes of Children (arablit.wordpress.com)

‘Tribalization’ Trends Issues – Eurozone ethnic divisions forming,growing subculture of North American violence, xenophobia, fundamentalism, and increasing disregard for international laws and human rights.

‘Decivilization‘ has been studied by social scientists such as Norbert Elias and Zygmunt Baumanand others. Elias began a trajectory in his civilization theory and processes, that others have since continued. ‘At the core of Elias’ ideas on the civilizing process is an implicit assumption of minimal equality, of some measure of equal treatment and equal esteem. Such a modicum of equality means that people identify with all others in their society as beings that are more of less the same as they are themselves'[1]

Often in times of duress, war, famine, or social stress, the process of ‘compartmentalization’ begins and continues as a targeted population becomes exempt from various rights the rest take for granted. As George Orwell would have said. ‘All men are created equal, just some are more equal than others.’ Decivilzation involves a process whereby the state monopolizes violence while a high degree of civilization is maintained in almost all respects for the vast majority of the population, and a target group is compartmentalized through ‘disidentification’. After, barbarism is provoked, and allowed to be expressed against the target group that now has become exempt from all state protection.

Germany has begun to trend towards the far right movement of the Dutch PVV leader Geert Wilders past it’s already present ultra-right wing parties such as the NPD , with the recent emergence of the ‘Freedom Party’ under the direction of Rene Stadtkewitz and encouraged by Thilo Sarrazin‘s book ‘Germany To Abolish…’ (Deutschland Scafft Sich Ab) which is a full on challenge of immigrants-Muslims in particular, and heatedly opens up the immigration integration debate. While a frank discussion on immigration is welcomed by many Germans, the current course of discussion that Thilo Sarrazin is talking about feels like he is trying to start the disidentification process. That Islamists are very different from Germans, and should be treated differently to promote their developing more to his liking.

A quote from his book:

“All clans have a long history of inbreeding and a corresponding number of disabilities…one could come up with the idea that genetic factors are responsible for the failure of parts of the Turkish population in the German School system”

Also from his book:

“The readiness to breed for working parents to combinations of exemption rules and replacement will be encouraged by appropriate…”

 

After the recent shooting of a Democratic Senator in Arizona the Financial Times Deutschland wrote the following:

“No one who is politically active can claim that words are not blameworthy. After the attack on Congresswoman Gabrielle Gillfords, US politics have become a matter of how much guilt can be assigned to words: At issue is whether the radicalization of the political debate played a role in the actions of what was likely a mentally disturbed lone actor.”

” Regardless of the motives of the assassin, the debate is urgently needed. The political radicalization in the US has reached a point that is unworthy of a democratic state. More than any others, the Tea Party movement made rhetoric of war into normal discourse….”

“It speaks volumes that Tea Party members and former Republican vice presidential candidate Sarah Palin removed crude imagery from their websites in a hurry on Saturday…”

” And instead of shaking their heads about the US, Europeans should think about their own verbal arsenals. Right-wing populists, for example, are involved in turning Islam into the face of the enemy. Their words are also not without blame.”

During this time of duress, fear can make many look at others as the cause of their current difficulties. People often regress into primitive tribal groups or family groups to cope. It is also often a time when fundamentalist/extremist beliefs can be polarized from a generally indifferent population. It only takes one unstable person to act in malice, and it only requires the process of compartmentalization of the ‘bad’ group for an otherwise civilized society to act maliciously towards them. It behooves us to guard against this underlying tendency, and to prevent and speak out, lest all men be created equal, just some more then others.

Related articles

• Fueling “harmful stereotypes, discrimination and xenophobia” in Finland and elsewhere (nemoo.wordpress.com)
• Democracy Reaches Its Limit (businessinsider.com)
• The Man Who Divides Germany. Again. (theglobalmail.org)